After diesel gate now electric gate? Experts on calculation errors in electric cars

Study causes violent reactions

After diesel gate now electric gate? Scientists criticize calculation errors in e-cars

After diesel gate now electric gate? Experts on calculation errors in electric cars-electric
Cattle man Electric cars are on the farm of a car dealership.

  • Site editor Sebastian Viehmann

  • Site author Carl Christian Jancke

In a very short time, Europe should say goodbye to the petrol engine. But the climate accounting does not work, experts claim – since emissions would be calculated incorrectly. A hot debate is now burning among researchers. Site explains the background.

"100 % green electricity" – This means that many electricity providers and also the manufacturers of electric cars advertise. Because if you drive Stromer, you often do this out of the conviction so that neither pollutants nor CO2 emissions to blow in the air. Of course, this has always been a little self -deception in a way, because even the electricity obtained for charging is not produced without emissions; In the worst case, coal flow flows through the lines . Nevertheless, many studies – for example from the Federal Environment Agency (UBA), the Organization Transport & Environment (T&E), the Agora Energende or also from Volkswagen- assumed that even the latest diesel and gasoline vehicles have a worse CO2 balance than a battery-electric vehicle. Organizations like T&E and corporations such as Volkswagen have a big influence in Brussels, politicians often follow their arguments.

Electric cars as an important pillar of climate protection

The acceptance of the climate rescuer electric car and the EU’s emission calculation is ultimately based on a calculation error, now scientists and researchers say technical universities. In a letter that is present, you have contacted the EU Commission to point out that the CO2 emissions will be twice as high in 2030 as forecast by Brussels. The senders are connected to a total of 171 scientists, engineers and drive experts in the IASASTEC (International Association of Sustainable Drivetrain and Vehicle Technology Research).

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In one essay, the co -signers Prof Dr lead. Thomas Koch and Prof. Thomas BOhlke from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology confirms that the laws of integration and differential calculation according to Leibniz have not been applied to the forecast. Despite or because of the EU strategy for avoiding CO2, their results are twice as bad as expected from Brussels for the defined strategy and regulation.

After diesel gate now electric gate? Experts on calculation errors in electric cars-gate
Kit How clean is the electric car? A current study assumes that CO2 emissions of electricity production artificially "too good" To be calculated-In the case of a mathematically correct calculation, the electric car is hardly more climate-friendly than modern combustion vehicles

The core of the evidence is an essay that bears the bulky title “The Averaging Bias – A Standard Miscalculation, which underestimates Real Co2 Emissions” and which after a scientific review of the Zamm, the magazine for Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, has been accepted for publication. This “Peer Review” distinguishes them from popular studies of some of the sometimes interest-based associations, which either like to evaluate burners or electric cars with different weighting of individual factors too badly or too well: The hypothesis has been scientifically checked (the study can be found via this link ))).

After diesel gate now electric gate? Experts on calculation errors in electric cars-electric
Assembly The BMW headquarters in Munich (large picture) stands for a four-cylinder engine. This is over at least faster in Germany than many thought -BMW beneficiaries will only be built abroad, in Germany only electric cars run off the assembly line.

Legislators do not want "unfavorable calculations"

The basic problem in the opinion of the experts: After not the entire electricity production of wind turbines and solar systems is performed by 2030 (and in many countries long afterwards), but also from coal and gas, with the additional need, CO2 emissions also increase This sector. In order to be able to be counted towards the available CO2 budget, you have to add the annual emissions. And the EU Commission does not even take into account or not sufficient. The lack of application of the Leibniz laws exacerbates the errors in the estimate because a factor has been formulated incorrectly. The accumulated emissions increase by twice by 2030 – much more than assumed by the EU Commission.

After diesel gate now electric gate? Experts on calculation errors in electric cars-calculation
Volkswagen Technical details about electric cars and plug-in hybrids. The batteries are controlled with temperature management, with hybrid batteries exposed to higher thermal loads. Various security systems are supposed to prevent fire incidents

After diesel gate now electric gate? Experts on calculation errors in electric cars-diesel

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    After diesel gate now electric gate? Experts on calculation errors in electric cars-diesel

    Tesla gate instead of diesel gate

    In fact, the accusation that the car manufacturers and politics are not new to the eco-balance of electric cars with a calculation method that is favorable for them. The physicist Christoph Buchal summed up the problem two years ago in conversation with site: "In fact, additional e-cars are to be regarded as additional, new electricity customers that have already fully fed in a market whose electricity share of renewable energies is already fully fed by the available free additional capacity (coal or possibly gas). The legislator knows this and therefore has that such ‘unfavorable’ calculations should not be officially carried out. You have to use average values", so Buchal.

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    Researchers sometimes harvest violent contradiction

    Not all experts share the IASTEC view. The allegation of lobbyism was even loud on Tuesday. Professor Christian Rehtanz from TU Dortmund criticized: “The letter is extremely embarrassing. It is a scientifically troubled lobbyist letter that tries to be convulsively. Koch of the kit) to save.“Koch is a former Daimler developer and is considered a top-class expert for diesel engines.If you look at the various contributions to the discussion, it is noticeable, that the actual thesis, namely that the calculation of the CO2 balance sheet is highly controversial, is usually not questioned at all. Professor Martin Wietschel from the Fraunhofer Institute for System and Innovation Research wrote in a post for the blog "Science Media Center", Koch asks the question of whether the electricity emixe of the Strommix is to be set for the electricity consumed by e-cars or the CO2 emissions of the border streamix, i.e. additional electricity, is to be used. There are "arguments for both positions". However, the use of average emissions is scientific standard. Because border stream emissions could not be clearly assigned. In addition, electric cars could serve as a flexible memory for excess wind and solar energy in the future.

    "Appeal shows how urgently expansion of renewable energies is"

    Patrick Jochem from the German Aerospace Center wrote: "The article takes up a valid point", but falls short in one place. Because electric cars could accelerate the energy transition in electricity generation and lead to negative marginal emissions, "especially if you integrate the e-cars into the energy system as a mobile memory". The fact is: There are actually plans for such applications – however, it remains open whether and when they are realized.The Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) demanded that people should be able to load their electric cars with green electricity. “The scientist’s appeal to the EU Commission once again makes it clear how urgently the quick expansion of renewable energies is."

    Officially emit e-cars zero grams CO2

    The sometimes very critical discussion is not surprising industry experts. Because if the scientists are right with their hypothesis or if their form of calculation were accepted as the more realistic, then the degree of consumer deception ultimately exceeds the dimension of diesel fraud. The new registration of an electric car is counted towards the fleet emissions with 0 g CO2 per 100 km. This represents a monetary advantage of 9000 euros for the manufacturer, with the sale of a “CO2 sinner” like the VW T6.1 (VW bus) can be offset. In other words: Only those who sell sufficient electric cars do not have to pay a punishment for the approval of conventional combustion engines. This is not the only one, but an important reason why almost all manufacturers only rely on battery cars in the EU with its world’s sharpest emission laws. And their carbon emissions depend on the energy mix in the respective country.

    After diesel gate now electric gate? Experts on calculation errors in electric cars-gate
    Cattle man Happy with the electric car? An advertisement for the new VW current ID.3

    VW ID3: twice as much CO2 emissions as promised?

    What this means, the scientists count on a VW ID.3 before:

    • In his life cycle (15 years, 220.000 km mileage) causes the electricity after the corrected calculation instead of 14 tons 30 tons of CO2 in operation through the power grid. The effort for the provision of the charging infrastructure and the construction of the cars has not yet been taken into account.
    • The climate balance of a diesel full hybrid, which would be refueled with R33 (67 % fossil fuel, 33 % biosprit), would then be even better than that of the electricity.

    The values assumed by the scientists, including for the lifespan of the electric cars and batteries, are partially questioned on the Internet. At Site’s request, IaSTEC co-founder Thomas Koch announced that after the work already published, he would submit a further investigation that deals specifically with the comparison of the air conditioning balance sheets of different models. In the margins it should be mentioned that the EU Commission itself represents that an electric car causes CO2 emissions, while 0 grams are counted towards fleet emissions.

    Pressure through the Parisian "Climate budget"

    The IASTEC experts refer to the so-called climate budget that the World Climate (IPCC) published 2018. 420 gigatons CO2 are likely to be emitted. In fact, the global emissions have been valued at around 40 gigatons every year since 2018, especially thanks to China with a rather increasing trend. Accordingly, the budget 2028 would be used up. Even though this budget is not part of international contracts and, for example, China, for example, is by far the largest CO2 slingshot in the world to increase its emissions by 2030, the Federal Constitutional Court has recently made it the basis of its judgment.

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    After diesel gate now electric gate? Experts on calculation errors in electric cars-experts

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    Electro, hybrid and eco-sprit should save climate goals

    The signatories of the letter to the EU Commission emphasize that they Electromobility as an important pillar of the mobility transition see. However, they also recommend conventional hybrid vehicles that are best refueled with synthetic and biological fuels. Because the production of these fuel in countries in which, unlike in Germany, renewable energies are abundant, but cannot be raised so quickly, these fuel are initially mixed with conventional gasoline (40 percent) and diesel (33 percent).

    The survey shows that majority do not want to limit itself personally for climate protection

    After diesel gate now electric gate? Experts on calculation errors in electric cars-gate

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    The higher the addition, the higher the CO2 reduction, here it is already at least 25 percent. This savings are also with each of the 1.4 billion. To quickly reach vehicles on the street and also the approximately 65 million cars and trucks approved in Germany and would not only limit the savings potential to new cars, according to the argumentation of the scientists. In contrast to the plug-in vehicles equipped with large batteries, the simple hybrids cost significantly less at 1500 euros. This also makes its use in the small car class, which is threatened with extinction.

    After diesel gate now electric gate? Experts on calculation errors in electric cars-experts
    Arthur D. Little CO2 emissions depend on the drive – and it is by no means zero even with the electric car

    Other experts warn of missing the climate goals

    Other experts also call for more openness to technology from the EU Commission. Prof. Dr. Thomas Willner, head of the research group Processing Technology of the University of Applied Sciences Hamburg, sees the risk that false regulation could lead to the EU failing the climate targets because unrealistic savings potential for certain technologies is assumed that does not occur in reality.The intended changes in the energy taxation guideline, the CO2 fleet emission limits and the renewable energy guideline would mean that the EU does not achieve the goals set and the so-called 1.5 degrees goal and the IPCC climatic abbreviated. Willner demands instead of privilege in electromobility A strict orientation towards the actual emissions and openness of technology, how these are achieved, for example with hydrogen or organic or synthetic fuels.

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    After diesel gate now electric gate? Experts on calculation errors in electric cars-experts

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    What would the consequences be?

    The motivation to buy an electric car is completely or at least partially justified by many customers, something "To do for the climate". However, if this article is artificially calculated and the actual CO2 emissions and also the pollutants caused by Stromer are much higher than promised, a rethink should actually take place, and that on several levels:

    • The fleet billing for electric cars with zero grams CO2, which has long been criticized by scientists, the EU could no longer maintain the EU without a loss of its credibility.
    • Purchase bonuses for electric cars and tax avoidance by their owners and operators at billions in billions would ultimately be based on incorrect conditions and would also have to be tested.
    • Prohibition of new registration for petrol and diesel vehicles as well as the preventive course for synthetic fuels, which was primarily driven by the German Federal Ministry of the Environment. But also plans such as the total driving ban for non-electric cars in Berlin, which with an alleged "Climate emergency" is justified, could be legally vulnerable.

    It remains to be seen whether the EU Commission reacts to the arguments of the scientists and can be influenced in July when the new climate and exhaust gas laws are adopted. The discussion is at least initiated – And in contrast to various Facebook attacks, which usually deliver electric car fans and electric car critics, behind the scenes are certainly discussed at the factual level

    "Ownership for employees"

    The environmental policy spokeswoman for the FDP parliamentary group Judith Skdeley now sees Federal Environment Minister Svenja Schulze (SPD) as a duty: "It is annoying that this now comes at a time when the federal government is practically incapable of action due to the end of the legislative period and the beginning of the election campaign. I still hope that Ms. Schulze will take a better role in summer due to the new knowledge in negotiations with the EU. In the past, it has done everything to ensure that electromobility is perceived as the only alternative of the mobility transition by setting close framework conditions", so skiosa. In view of the new findings, the Federal Government, the Ministry of the Environment and the EU would have to check and change its one -sided policy in favor of electromobility. "Otherwise, the mobility turnover will not only be an own goal for the employees in Germany, but above all for the climate", so skiosa.

    Drive strategy The car manufacturers will hardly change

    However, little will change in the basic electrification strategy of the car manufacturers, because this is irreversible for at least for models sold in the EU. It is influenced by political regulations, but also by the technical progress of electrical technology. You could also see that at the U -turn at Audi. The premium car maker- although the manufacturer’s chief of development had recently declared the opposite- will completely say goodbye to all petrol, diesel and also hybrid drives and only bring pure battery cars onto the market . According to information from Site from Audi circles, the new course of the manufacturer is by no means undisputed. However, Volkswagen boss Diess has given a clear direction-and is said to have even threatened to deduct Volkswagen from the VDA if he does not wear his electrical course.

    After diesel gate now electric gate? Experts on calculation errors in electric cars-diesel
    Audi Elektro-SUV meets wind power: The future at Audi is purely electrical, at least in the EU. It is hotly debated whether this is really true with the green electricity at e-mobile

    More than 20 percent of all new cars are already electrically

    More than 20 percent of all new cars approved in Germany are already electric (purely battery electrical, electrically with fuel cell or as a plug-in hybrid with electrical and diesel or petrol engine). The German premium manufacturers, above all Audi, are good, As the Federal Motor Transport Authority calculates in its current statistics for 2021: "Five German brands together covered a share of more than 50 percent of all new registrations with alternative drives in the course of the year. Audi contributed to this with a share of 68.9 percent (+45.7 %) and at the same time achieved the largest share within his new car fleet. The proportion of BMW was 55.2 percent (+249.4 %), which rose from Mercedes by +116.0 percent to 39.1 percent. Ford increased by +392.6 percent and achieved a share of 33.5 percent", So the KBA.A modified drive strategy of the EU would also change the electrification goals of most car manufacturers. However, the scientists’ study would at least provide good arguments for no longer playing alternative drives against conventional drives with the argument of climate protection. Also approval or, as already planned by some EU countries such as Spain, Driving bans for all petrol and diesel cars Would be legally vulnerable: it would hardly be conveyed not to grant any existing protection if the alleged climate advantage of the electric cars turns out to be a calculating trick.

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    Reply
  2. Audi
    So no longer want to build combustion engines. Means you want me and many others … No more than customer. Others will benefit from it, probably as so often, many engines come from China.

    Reply
  3. An e car cannot be a memory
    Since you get the current you need get out of the network and then separate from the network when you need it when driving. An owner who is dependent on a full battery after the loading because it has to work to work if the battery is emptied overnight because there is a need for electricity where else else is needed.

    Reply
  4. Ecological balance!?
    Measures are probably only measured after the engine is started? That’s not how I see it! The electric car has in the manufacturing process 12.729 kg CO2 caused, the burner only 4.336 kg. This "CO2 backpack" of the e-car is in the balance sheet after 16.86 years of operation and an annual mileage of 15.000 kilometers broken down: Because the electric car comes to 15 with the currently available charging current.000 km on average 1.939 kg CO2 /year off. The diesel comes to 2 with the same mileage.480 kg CO2 / year. So the electric car has an advantage here due to the higher efficiency of the electric motor. At the end of the life cycle, the CO2 vapor is added from the recycling process: 1.278 kg / e-car, 515 kg / burner. Nobody knows how many batteries will be included during over 16 years…

    Reply
  5. The green ideology is always right
    Germany has been the leadership of hydrogen engines and world research leaders in technology for hydrogen production for 20 years. But left – green, Merkel, investors and industry whip e -mobility through for various reasons. Already at 10% electric cars, the power supply is reached by mass loads at 6 p.m. The expansion of the current route north-south is stuck. Commercial electric petrol pumps, if there are enough, play their own and especially foreign customers without the legislator’s intervention. It looks similar with replacement battery costs. Instead of the future with a little patience through the expansion of hydrogen technology and nationwide solar systems on private houses, only e-mobility is encouraged on devils come out.

    Reply
  6. A single sentence was enough
    To convince me, buy an electric car. When I became a pensioner five years ago, I decided to find out about electric cars from all car dealerships. Unlike the whole decades earlier, the sellers were angry, unfriendly, and preferred to sell me a car with an explosion engine. Until a boss of a car dealership said this decisive sentence, if I sell you an electric car, then I can do my workshop right away. I drove home and thought what he meant. No oil change, no oil filter, no brakes, no exhaust, no catalyst, no water pump, no V -belt, u.S.W. . Today after four years of e-car, I enjoy every trip with my second e-car. The boss was right, I didn’t need to go to the workshop.

    Reply
  7. Great…
    … story, Mr. Bauer. What do you want to tell us about it? That you bought a vehicle at the expense of taxpayers that will be operated at the expense of taxpayers and drives your car dealership into bankruptcy? That they are one of the few who can afford and load an e-kisterl because it stands in front of your own home? I still don’t understand why they let us participate.

    Reply
  8. That doesn’t change either
    However, the reality -oriented researchers will certainly fail because of the ideological policy. After all, it shouldn’t be there, which should not be according to their will.

    Reply
  9. That is the actual problem
    Ideology-thesis politicians can be driven by the e-lobby "stimulated" With false numbers and assumptions. The lobby is more due to money, funding, subsidies and tax advantages than the environment. the "world -resistant politician" have a clear conscience and consider their driving service to be role models. It is obvious that the e-disciples are not scientists.

    Reply
  10. There is no calculation error here
    A calculation error is something that is clearly wrong. Since there is no clearly correct answer in the discussion of which electricity mix should be used to calculate the CO2 emissions of electric cars, there can be no clearly correct or wrong solution when calculating. So who is a striking one for the EU here "Calculation error" accuses, disqualifies itself.

    Reply
  11. So, but the error is based on data,
    which were specified by the e-lobby. They didn’t bother or had a sufficient knowledge of mathematics. These data used were examined. There they were "Discrepancies" discovered. Based on incorrect results, battery cars are subsidized and run tax-free. As if they were CO2 neutrally and did not use streets.

    Reply
  12. It’s always amusing,
    If justified criticism of e-mobility becomes loud and the e-mobility disciples "Counterattack" blow. There were actually 170 scientists to question the EU bill on the CO2 emissions of electric cars and also with verifiable facts, without pronouncing themselves against e-mobility, but seeing them as part of the mobility turn. The main component of this is the fact that green electricity from wind and solar energy is never reliably available because it does not get through "Goblin" and "in the web" Can be saved. Also the utopian idea that e-cars in the "Hidden state" As a buffer memory could be used, it will probably pass the reality. Technology openness is the magic word for a future with fewer CO2 emissions.

    Reply
  13. There he is again,
    who obviously doesn’t get anything. I have the term "Utopia" consciously chosen because that "electrician" the bidirectional shop is well known and he also knows how it works. To do this, however, people also have to go along and the electric cars must also be connected to the network if necessary, otherwise it will not work. How does he want "Wiwi" Realize that, through compulsion, you stupidly…?

    Reply
  14. The ecolobby always uses some
    Studies that claim everything without proving it. Best example: further expansion of wind power. Take a look at the factual records of Energy Charts.de that show the hourly energy generation according to energy type of the past 12 years. You will find many tired wind power plants that do not run due to the durry! If you evaluate the articles of the German Wind Guard for 2020, you will find at the division of the annual generation in TWH through the installed performance that the resulting number of full load days on land and 155 days is only 84 days. D.H., Without social assistance, a renewable energy law mentioned here, wind power would never be economically operated and without import flow the light goes out after the core and coal phase-out!

    Reply
  15. Thanks very much
    Many thanks to the authors and the site for this article. It corresponds deeply in my assessment of the situation. In addition, I hope that in the future my contributions, which are largely represented this opinion, will no longer be deleted. Thanks.

    Reply

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