Analyst expects ~ 900.000 E-car approvals in 2021 for Europe

Analyst expects ~ 900.000 E-car approvals in 2021 for Europe-analyst

Matthias Schmidt, automotive analyst, dared at the end of August a look at the first eight months of the year, the next four and a view into the near future of e-mobility in Europe. In this case, Schmidt continues to assume that by the end of 2020, we are a market penetration of at least 5 percent electric cars (2019: 2.5%) in a market of 11 million (12-month rolling a total of 11.04 million.) To see vehicles in Europe.

He gives it to understand: strongly influenced by the Corona pandemic we will not, as was to be expected this year the magical border of 700.Crack 000 E vehicles in one year. This was still considered possible last year by Schmidt. Mind you before Corona. Meanwhile, he has corrected this statement to 556.000 E-car settings. A number of important adjustments for both private purchase and tax incentives for electric cars and plug-in hybrids will help to achieve the CO2 conformity targets this year. Also for 2021 and the following years he sees a positive sales curve.

At the time of publishing its analysis (at the beginning of October 2020), the automotive analyst assumes that all automobile manufacturers in Europe will achieve the 2020 CO2 specifications. From his point of view, however, the Volkswagen Group and Daimler are at risk of reaching these goals. Here, above all, the risk of a second Covid barrier plays a crucial role. Since this could in particular Daimler could make a stroke through the bill when introducing the plug-in models in 2020. A second lock could force Daimler to enter into a merger with other car manufacturers to achieve the CO2 goals. The VW Group has already secured accordingly.

The automotive analyst is based on the prognosis of the Volkswagen Group for its outlook that the entire Western European automotive market will reach 12,3 million car units in 2021 and 13.1 million in 2022. Based on these numbers, Schmidt goes from an increase in pure E cars in the coming year to 898.000 units and 1.04 million units in 2022. Between 2023 (1.2 million) and 2024 (1.27 million.) Will the growth rate probably weaken because the extension of the offer before the next CO2 reduction could be placed on ice in 2025. Whereby Schmidt is to be understood that by 2025, a 11.4-percent electric car content (1.6 million units in a recovering market of 14.3 million) expected.

The very important CO2 target for 2025 is expected to be about 103g / km (WLTP). The CO2 targets for 2030 (37.5% reduction compared to 2021) may change, whereby the European Commission wants to increase this goal to 50%, according to a report which has already been viewed by Schmidt.

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4 thoughts on “Analyst expects ~ 900.000 E-car approvals in 2021 for Europe”

  1. “” Where Schmidt is understanding that by 2025, a 11.4-percent electric car content (1.6 million units in a recovering market of 14.3 million) expected.”” The entire disruptive change will be disregarded. The sales figures for E cars will also double in Europe for the next few years, each year when the manufacturers can supply. So we could stand in 2025 at 8-10 million new e-cars per year.

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  2. But that’s absurd. 10 million would almost be the overall market. I also believe in a relatively fast market penetration but in five years is completely ridiculous. There are neither enough charging columns nor enough capacities of the manufacturer, especially with the battery cells.

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  3. Charging columns are no problem – if politics wants. The battery cells would also rich if not all SUVs would buy with ever larger batteries.

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