Analysts see the train of e-mobility

Analysts see the train of e-mobility-average price dollars Tesla deals

A look at the coming year in E-cars and mobility have thrown the analysts of IDTechex. Company for market research based in Cambridge maintains dependances in the USA, Japan and Germany.

Tech-Gigant Tesla will therefore continue its way to sell 20 million cars per year to 2030. At an average price of 30.000 dollars per Tesla car deals with a quarter of a sales of 150 billion dollars. Although Tesla also works on electrical trucks, IDTechex assumes that cars will now and in the future the most profitable market for E vehicles will remain. The achievements of Tesla would pave the way for other companies. An example is Rivian, which is supported by Ford and Amazon and gone to the stock market in November.

Autonomous vehicles also looks IDTechex on the rise. It should be expected that 2022 other tests for Robo taxis leads from the strategy papers. After Honda launched the Legend the first level 3 vehicle in Japan, models are likely to follow other manufacturers 2022. IDTechEX also counts in Europe with the advent of Level 3 vehicles for private use. Germany, France and England have already accolded their interest to allow usage on public roads. The Mercedes S-Class is considered favorite for a start beginning next year. Technical progress in this area is supported by the increasing sophistication of sensor technologies, it says. Continental and ZF are likely to install the first 4D radar devices in production vehicles 2022. Parallel to the prices for Lidar. Bosch has explained to IDTechex that his system will be available for $ 250 to 500 US dollars.

The prospects for fuel cells in cars still appreciate the analysts low. Range and tank advantage, however, build high potential for long-distance trucks or buses. While Tesla Semi is increasingly being postponed to give priority to the batteries for more profitable electric cars, Hyundai announced in September to develop up to 2028 fuel cell variants for all his commercial vehicles.

At IDTechEX you can see on top of that opportunities to extend the range of electric vehicles. In addition to increasing the battery capacity, there are possibilities in power electronics. An emerging engine technology are so-called axial flow motors in which the magnetic flow runs parallel to the axis of rotation. Compared to radial flow engines, these build a higher power and torque density as well as advantages in the design. You could find use in the AMG platform of Mercedes.

Accelerate, according to the analysts, the transition to 800 volt systems as well as for the use of silicon carbide in power electronics will be accelerated. Renault, BYD and Hyundai would have announced in this area up to 2025 new vehicle platforms. The challenges of housing and materials are obviously manageable. An important trend is in this context the introduction of the “Cell-to-Pack” technology. BYD brought his blade battery to the road, and many automakers, including Tesla, VW and Stellantis, would have announced to use this technology in the coming years. Because the cells could be connected directly to the cooling plate, the number of thermal interfaces decrease. However, in the consequence, there is an increased need for thermally conductive adhesives.

On the descending AST you can see the hybrid vehicles at IDTech-Ex. In particular, plug-in models are in the worst case “environmental threshold”. The recent growth was driven by Europe, as the car manufacturers there wanted to avoid penalties for violations of the EU goal of 95 g CO2 per kilometer. The political decision-makers would increasingly recognize the limits of hybrid analysis, it means. In addition, bans of fossil fuels between 2030 and 2040 usually included prohibitions for double hearts.

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4 thoughts on “Analysts see the train of e-mobility”

  1. The “low” efficiency of the overall vehicle of CA. 70% comes through the chain charger-> load losses in the battery-> discharge loss -> inverter-> motor-> gearbox-> axle drive.
    Charger (90%), charging / discharge efficiency combines 96% in the case of well-tempered battery 96%, inverter IGBT 97%, engine in common operating points 92%, gearbox and axle drive 92% (I’m not sure). So 70% multiplied together.
    If one increases the middle efficiency of the engine to 95% and via SIC that of the inverter from 99%, we are at 75% or. 7% more range. So 20km more or something. Mercy. There is more music in the choice of body shape.

    If you optimize the charger, this does not increase the range of course. Together with the above optimizations, however, you could increase the efficiency from plug to 80%, reduce consumption, for example, from 15 to 13.2 kWh / 100 km

  2. Tesla will therefore continue its way to sell 20 million cars by 2030 a year. At an average price of 30.000 dollars per Tesla car deals with a quarter of a sales of 150 billion dollars.

    What do you want to say exactly directly and / or between the lines. Say 20 million and believe 5 million?

  3. Prohibitions for double hearts? Phevs and hybrids belong to the garbage pile of history, but the popular double heart has probably still have his existence! Mr. Plank, what do you write there? Too much Vita-Buerlecithin?

  4. Very interesting article. To Phev, here I also see that out to approx. 2025. The electrical reaches are too low, the charging services often too low, the technique complicated and the vehicles too heavy. If you look at the motivation to the PHEV purchase, it is often the promotion in particular the company car (0.5% control rather than 1%), the independence from the small total ranges of the BEV (CA. 300-500) and thus the poor charging infrastructure and the ever-increasing electricity prices on the charging pillars (basic charge and high electricity costs up to 79 CT / kWh).
    There are also the few long holiday trips with and without trailer. Here would have to borrow a BEV driver / in an extra car.
    We drive a PHEV as a company car, upload our vehicle mainly with our own PV system and driving with approx. 60% pure electrically to board computer (CA. 30.000 km P.a. Total performance). For the reasons mentioned above, we decided for a company car leasing (until 7/2024). Then we hope that even in Germany affordable, powerful Bev’s (not only SUV’s) and the infrastructure is ready.
    P.S. We only own 1 car and live in the countryside.


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