Automotive analyst expects over one million electric cars in Europe in 2021

Automotive analyst expects over one million electric cars in Europe in 2021-analyst

According to automobile analyst Matthias Schmidt from Berlin, pure electric cars will exceed the one million registration mark in Europe in 2021. In detail, Schmidt assumes that purely electric cars will claim an 8.5 percent share of the entire car market. Based on total sales of 12.3 million vehicles, 1.045.500 electric vehicles can be sold in 2021. This already takes into account the ongoing corona effects and delivery problems from the semiconductor industry.

The analyst bases his data on forecasts by national authorities, which have examined and classified their individual main markets. Taking into account the plans of the respective car manufacturers in the market. Tesla is an example, which will probably double the regional Tesla sales volume with the start of production in the European Giga(factory) in the second half of 2021. The VW Group is also looking at an increasing sales volume this year. The decisive factor here is the MEB ramp-up of the group, which will reach around 330 by the end of 2021.000 units produced. With the full annual capacity of the MEB Stromer, the other models from Zwickau can then be expected in 2022.

With the expiry of the “95% phase for CO2 compliance in 2020”, 100% of OEM fleets must now contribute to meeting the fleet average target from 2021. It is also important to consider supercredits. The manufacturer’s entire fleet will be counted towards the fleet average in 2021 and the value of the super credits on offer will be reduced (if manufacturers have any left of their capped 7.5g/km amount spread over three years). To explain: Vehicles that emit less than 50g CO2 per kilometer are affected by the super credits, for example, will be counted twice for fleet consumption in 2020, 1.66 times in 2021 and 1.33 times in 2022 – limited to 7.5g /km. After that, you won’t get any more super credits.

This should also have a positive effect on PHEV sales that fall below the limit of less than 50g CO2 per kilometer. Because if PHEVs with longer ranges come onto the market, with consequently lower – on paper – CO2 emissions, these should continue to be tax-privileged in key markets. Hard penalties like in France can be avoided. German OEMs in particular are in a kind of tight spot by converting their top-end premium models to PHEVs in order not to jeopardize their CO2 emissions targets. So Schmidt. He also concludes: “While 2020 was the year of the electric car, 2021 could be the year of the PHEV. The combined plug-in hybrid forecast for 2021 sees a 15.5% penetration of a 12.3 million. market or 1.91 million. units before.”

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