According to a Reuters analysis, car manufacturers worldwide plan to spend more than 450 billion euros on electric vehicles and batteries by 2030. This will boost investments aimed at weaning car buyers away from combustion engines in order to meet increasingly stringent decarbonization targets. Two years ago there was still talk of around 260 billion euros being invested.
Developments around the world, driven in part by zero-carbon emissions targets in cities like London and Paris and in countries from Norway to China, are helping to accelerate the industry’s investment commitments. The latest analysis shows that automakers plan to spend an estimated $452 billion over the next five to 10 years to design and build new battery-powered vehicles and move away from internal combustion engines.
However, industry executives and forecasters fear that without significant additional stimulus and even greater spending on charging infrastructure and grid capacity, consumer demand for EVs could fall far short of ambitious targets. There is also a movement on the market that is fueling each other more and more. If a manufacturer commits to a special e-mobility offer, the others follow suit so as not to be considered backward.
According to AlixPartners, all global automakers together will spend almost $225 billion on capital expenditures and research and development in 2020. There is also growing political and regulatory pressure on global automakers to phase out production of fossil-fuel vehicles, including plug-in hybrids, over the next 10 to 15 years while increasing production of all-electric models.
A number of countries, from Singapore to Sweden, have announced plans to ban the sale of new internal combustion engine vehicles by 2030. US President Joseph Biden has said he wants electric vehicles to account for 40-50% of sales by 2030. In Germany, the VW Group in particular is leading the way with high investments in order to be the leader in the field of e-mobility by 2030.
VW’s investments, like those of many of its competitors, are aimed at improving battery range and performance and reducing the cost of EVs, as well as expanding battery and EV production worldwide. VW and fellow German automakers Daimler AG and BMW AG plan to spend a combined $185 billion by 2030, while US automakers GM and Ford expect to spend nearly $60 billion by 2025.
Chinese automakers, led by VW and local GM partner SAIC Motor, have announced investment targets well in excess of $100 billion over the next decade. Japanese automakers are far behind: Honda Motor, Toyota Motor and Nissan Motor have publicly pledged less than $40 billion so far. These investments do not include the tens of billions of dollars being invested in additional production capacity by the world’s largest battery companies, many in collaboration with their automotive partners.
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450 billion euros divided by 9 years would be 50 billion euros per year.
The largest manufacturers together came to 66.45 million vehicles worldwide in 2020.
50 billion euros per year spread over 66.45 million vehicles 752.45 euros per vehicle.
450 billion euros would be the equivalent of less than the surcharge for a metallic paint finish on all vehicles, that’s how much a clean environment should be worth to us and the manufacturers.
“Driving School of the Future” – until the end of the decade there will be self-propelled cars. I think that will have drastic effects. The fact that driving schools will no longer be needed is the least of its effects. Kiddies as occasional drivers will then become more mobile in car sharing concepts such as Car2Go/DriveNow (or whatever they are now called). Young people who paid for vehicles based on use are less likely to buy a car themselves than adults.
We have one or two fewer driving schools driving around with an electric car. I would primarily say that it is financially worthwhile for the driving schools in the end. According to the article, the car drives about 300-350km per day. Let’s say a smaller company drives 46 weeks a year, 5 days a week, makes about 230 days a year, i.e. 230 days x 300km/day = 69.000 km per year. What will a diesel consume in driving school typical driving style (3. gear at 50km/h etc.)? 6 liters / 100km with security with all city trips. So at the current €1.50/litre (if you’re lucky), that’s about €9/100km = €6210 per year for fuel + maintenance costs. The electric car is probably easy to take with you <Drive 20kWh/100km. Power at 30ct/kWh = 6€/100km (rather less), i.e. 4140€ per year for electricity, with lower maintenance costs. So pessimistic calculations are the 2000€ per year minimum saving of electricity vs. fuel. There are also tax and maintenance costs. In addition, the fact that fuel prices are rising and you have the option of generating electricity partially from your own PV (which would then be at 2 €/100 km or less and that also lasts over 20-30 years).
In 10 years there is no driving school anymore, the “Friday-for-Future movement” will not believe that car tires or street bridges are manufactured in a neutral, which do not make a driver’s license and certainly not on a journey.