Chip crisis in car manufacturers intensifies – but has a positive effect

"A chance for car manufacturers"

Chip crisis in car manufacturers intensifies – but also has a positive effect

Daimler The effects of the chip lack will be noticeable for a long time.

• Site author Patrick Solberg

The chip crisis keeps the automotive world in suspense and seems to get worse and worse. The cars of Germany, Japan, USA and China are particularly affected by the bottlenecks in silicon chips. Experts consider one aspect to be positive.

Last year the semiconductor crisis had made itself significantly less noticeable because of the corona pandemic because the economy had driven down and adjusted its productions. This year it looks much worse despite continuing pandemic, because more is produced and more in demand is being asked. But the production of the semiconductor does not come close. In response to this, the analysts of Global Data have corrected the forecasts for real economic growth by 0.14 percentage points for Germany, 0.23 for Japan, 0.45 for the USA and 0.25 percentage points for China downwards.

Economic growth: forecast goes down

"It is not surprising that Germany, Japan, the United States and China have felt the economic effects of the chip shortage as a large vehicle manufacturer," explains Gargi Rao, economic research analyst at Global Data, "the vehicle sales were already stalling in August 2021 , and it is expected that the inventory will continue to be cut in the coming months."

Ryan Garza, Detroit Free Press/Tns via Zuma Wire/dpa Workers carry out a final check in a paint shop by General Motors in Flint. The largest US car maker was hit particularly hard by the industry-wide chip delivery bottlenecks in the past quarter.

According to Global Data, the sales market for cars and light commercial vehicles in September declined by an average of 26 percent in Western Europe and North America in September. In the United States, where the real growth forecasts were corrected by the most down, vehicle sales in September decreased by almost 25 percent, followed by Great Britain with a loss of 34.9 percent. It hardly looked better in Germany, because vehicle sales were reduced by more than 22 percent in August. The situation was similar with a decline of 17.3 percent in the USA in the United States and China also lost 10.5 percent.

Japan gets it comparatively lightly from it

The decline in Japan was significantly less noticeable, where there was a narrow minus of 2.26 percent. However, it is expected that they will continue to sink in the coming months – especially because of Toyota’s 40 percent production cutting, which will further increase the gap between supply and demand.

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"We observe that the production plans of the vehicle manufacturers will continue to be disturbed in the fourth quarter due to the chip shortage," says David Leggett, automotive analyst at Global Data, "long leading times for the expansion of the semiconductor production capacities mean that there is no quick solution for the delivery bottlenecks. In fact, the delivery difficulties for the auto industry are still likely to exist in early 2022, even if the bottlenecks are gradually relaxing at some companies."

Lief chains have to be re -evaluated

The missing microchips are by no means only noticeable in the auto industry. Gargi Rao: “The shortage of microchips and other industrial components hinders economic recovery in 2021 – and forces companies and political decision -makers in the automotive industry to re -rate their supply chains.

The requirement of the hour is to reduce the dependence on a handful of Asian and American suppliers. The defect does not only affect the automotive sector. Companies that produce consumer electronics are also severely affected by this. In the short term, retailers could pass on the rising costs to their customers, which could dampen the demand."

Cattle man Currently rather unusual: new cars with high discounts at a car dealer. Due to the semiconductor crisis, many new cars are delivered very delayed – this lowers the discount pressure

In addition, the persistent closures in many countries in the Asian-Pacific area have sustainably interrupted the global supply chains in the electronics and solar industry. The increasing demand for solar energy and the silicon prices that have increasing since June 2021 have affected the production facilities in the region. The analysts from Global Data expect that silicon prices for the rest of the year remain roughly at the current level and can only be alleviated by increasing production.

"This is a positive aspect in the long term"

For the car manufacturers, however, the chip crisis is not consistently disadvantageous. David Legget: “The chip shortage is a kind of double-edged sword. It not only raises the transaction prices for sold vehicles at short notice, but also forces companies to seriously check their supply chains with regard to transparency and risk reduction strategies – a positive aspect in the long term."

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