- China – Admission decline of more than 60 percent compared to previous year
- Europe – still on growth course – burglaries by coronavirus still outstanding
- USA – Tesla Model Y as a hope for America
- Japan – 2020 without great views of improvement
Meanwhile the seventh month in a row, the Chinese e-auto market in February 2020 recorded a decline in monthly sales compared to the same period of the previous year. Partly driven by the fact that State Chinese subsidies for New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) were reduced or completely deleted in the second quarter of 2019. For the most part influenced by the effects of the coronavirus. This leads Europe to settle in February 2020 at the electric car market of China. We consider the development.
It should be appreciated that it is that March 2020 shines in a completely different light, since Europe will also be more affected by the effects of the coronavirus. In February 2020, these effects were not yet fully. In addition, you play in China with the thought of subsidies upright to support the burdening market accordingly.
China – Admission decline of more than 60 percent compared to previous year
In the previous year, the Western European market achieved a volume of 89 percent a volume of 76.410 units, more than 30.000 More than in China in the same period. In the same period of last year, the Chinese E-Auto volume was according to the CAAM 113.000 units. It can be stated that compared to the previous year, China must accept a decline of over 60 percent, or 68.443 units that could be less recorded in the market. As already mentioned above, this can at least partially return to decline subsidies.
February, however, was dramatically impaired by the outbreak of the coronavirus, which led to many parts of the country were inactive. Volkswagen expects the car volume to reach the level of the previous year until early summer, while the CEO of Volvo Cars, Håkan Samuelsson, in a note published in the annual report 2020, which was published at the end of March, said that the number of Chinese Volvo said Traders already returned to a normal level. The NEV subsidies (NEV = New Energy Vehicle) are supposed to be extended until the end of 2022, at reduced altitude – see this article.
Tesla will contribute its part to the start of production that China can show better figures again. Tesla Plant 2020 with 170.000 Model 3 from Giga Shanghai. 2021 wants Tesla already at 250.000 Model 3 / Year. In addition, the introduction of the Tesla Model Y is in the room. VW had agreed on a million e-cars in 2020 whether this target is still to be kept, appears in question.
Europe – still on growth course – burglaries by coronavirus still outstanding
In February, an almost identical annual growth rate of almost 90 percent (88.9%) was recorded as in January. The forecast of 700.000 E-cars for Europe This year has changed meanwhile, as the overall market is expected to go back by about 21 percent after the forecasts of LMC and Moody’s forecasts. Automotive Analyst Matthias Schmidt does not abandon that Europe can maintain the share of five percent alternative drives on the overall market in 2020.
One could even assume that appropriate e-auto orders are pushed to 2021 because you do not necessarily want to overfill the CO2 goals. Furthermore, “scrapping bonuses” or other policies could be supported to support the industry, as was the case with the financial crisis 2009. On an already required reduction of the CO2 goals, the car manufacturers have not yet been informed.
USA – Tesla Model Y as a hope for America
The introduction of Tesla Model Y will probably support the market in the second half of the year, while other car manufacturers are likely to ignore the US market and focus on meeting the Chinese and European CO2 goals. It is unlikely that the forecast of 350.000 is reached, as the outbreak of the Coronavirus now also concerns the US – although the key region California is not so severely affected as other regions – Stand at the end of March 2020.
A volume of approximately 290.000 units appear realistic, resulting about half of the Western European levels. Compared to the previous year, the American market could still grow and brought it to an increase of 48.3 percent, with an e-auto market share of just under 1.7 percent. Compared to this, Europe took 3.9, China to 2.0 and Japan to 0.6 percent market share.
Japan – 2020 without great views of improvement
For the Japanese electric car market, it can be said that the weak development continues, which expresses itself in a further decline in the market. In the first two months of the year, a small number of E cars was registered, whereby the market continues to show little appetite for electric cars, especially as prices are still high, including an increase in the purchase tax last year. It is predicted that the level of 2020 under 40.000 will stay. The paragraph has fallen by a good 16 percent compared to the previous year.
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1 thought on “E-car market: China continues to grow in the downward trend – Europe on growth course”
I miss in the report a bit of comparison with the overall market or. burning.
Yes, 60% decline in e-cars in China in February sounds dramatically. But if you know, that in February, the overall market for cars in China has reduced by 80% and there are still significantly more burners than e-cars, you can say that the e-car sales are still very well standing.