E-cars: Science expects further decreasing battery costs

E-cars: Science expects further decreasing battery costs-further

For years, there is a significant downtrend at the cost of batteries. This development is important as batteries as central components make up the majority of the cost of electric cars and stationary energy storage. Today these products are not yet fully competitive. Further battery cost reductions are required so that an economically viable use of the CO2 neutral society can succeed. For a switching position by the politics and industry, as accurate battery cost forecasts as possible are necessary.

However, scientific cost forecasts for battery systems come to very different results. For the year 2030, they calculated a range of less than 400 dollars per kilowatt hour. This uncertainty is a major challenge for the planning of political support measures for electromobility or for the profitable design of future product portfolios of vehicle manufacturers.

A cross-departmental research team of Westfalische Wilhelms-Universitat (WWU) Munster has now published in the trade magazine “Energy & Environmental Science” a comparative study of battery cost forecasts from the past decade. More than 50 scientific publications were examined, which deal with the cost of lithium-ion, solid, lithium-sulfur and lithium-air batteries. The comparative study represents the resulting costs and consolidates scientific opinion in a costtrend.

E-cars: Science expects further decreasing battery costs-furtherMauler et al. (Https: // CreativeCommons.Org / Licenses / BY-NC / 3.0 /)

The results show an overarching expectation of further decreasing battery costs, even under pessimistic commodity price scenarios: “Lithium-ion batteries have not yet reached their cost limit. The regression of system cost expectations shows a reduction to $ 70 per kilowatt hour by 2050 – about halving over today’s market prices, “explains Lukas Mauler from the Institute for Business Management at the Department of Chemistry and Pharmacy of the WWU as well as Porsche Consulting GmbH and lead to publish analysis. Science, above all, expect additional cost potential compared to the current technologies through advanced battery materials such as high energy and high-voltage cathode materials. Furthermore, the studies underline the potential for post-lithium-ion technologies that are not yet economically competitive today.

Depending on the research question of the examined publications, other drivers of battery costs flow into the evaluation. Prof. Dr. Jens Leker, Head of the Institute of Business Management, explains: “In addition to battery technology, a variety of other criteria flow into cost forecasts. These range from the production process via factory location and size to commodity price scenarios. A significant part of the prediction variance can be attributed to these assumptions.”

This study continued to charge the necessary transparency in order to be able to assess prediction results technically. In addition, a signpost included that the researchers allow you to quickly find suitable studies and better understanding. The detailed results of the comparative study on battery cost predictions are published as a review article in the journal of the Royal Society of Chemistry “Energy & Environmental Science” (linked as PDF).

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5 thoughts on “E-cars: Science expects further decreasing battery costs”

  1. I expect that especially in the stationary store for PV systems currently around the 600 euros
    While the prices are already below 150 euros during the e-cars

    Reply
  2. Incidentally, the guys who actually build the batteries expect falling costs &# 128578; – And every self-thinking person (non-scientist included) by the way also.
    Super scientist!!! – Probably a study commissioned by Deutsche Bank ? &# 128521;

    Reply
  3. For the year 2030, they calculated a range of less than 400 dollars per kilowatt hour.

    ..

    “Lithium-ion batteries have not yet reached their cost limit. The regression of system cost expectations shows a reduction to $ 70 per kilowatt hour up to 2050 – about halving over today’s market prices “, Explains Lukas Mauler From the Institute for Business Management at the Department of Chemistry and Pharmacy of the WWU As well as Porsche Consulting GmbH and lead in the publishing analysis.

    Is that now a paid fairytale hour of the burner lobby? – Who would have expected anything else.

    Almost 30 years for a halving of battery prices? – Then Porsche would prefer to log in bankruptcy.

    If the battery prices should be so high 2030 to 2050, then the policy would have to raise the CO2 price to 100 to over 400 euros per ton, so that the causes of environmental damage by CO2 emissions also at the ever higher costs due to flooding, storms and drought to be involved.

    Reply
  4. I do not know where these numbers come from and what they mean to mean. Usually one speaks of purchase prices either on cell level or on battery level. Means either the pure cells or the total product. Since the latter is usually created by added value at the car manufacturer, it is more meaningful to call the purchase prices of the cells.

    Since VW was two years ago at Sub € 100 / KWh. If you find in the net. Exciting is the following search: Catl $ 60 kWh. Because the so-called. Cheap cells, LFP, have been advertised last year with a double-digit price sticker. Therefore, I find the prices absolutely stupid because far too high.

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  5. The prices will fall faster. Parallel to the suffering pressure that produces climate change. It is just built on the whole planet factories for batteries and expanded. And investors lay massively their capital in this direction. “If you want to know how the future will look like, follow the money”

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