Job message for car manufacturers: Chip deficiency until at least 2023

Production bottlenecks

Job message for car manufacturers: Chip deficiency until at least 2023

Job message for car manufacturers: Chip deficiency until at least 2023-deficiency
Ryan Garza, Detroit Free Press/Tns via Zuma Wire/dpa Workers carry out a final check in a paint shop by General Motors in Flint. The largest US car maker was hit particularly hard by the industry-wide chip delivery bottlenecks in the past quarter.

  • Site author Patrick Solberg

The car conductor crisis will continue to grip the AutoTelt in the coming year. The analysts of IHS assume that the 2022 market can hardly recover.

According to IHS calculations, the global car sales will be 82.4 million vehicles in the coming year. That would be a plus of just 3.7 percent compared to the end of 2021. This year, auto production is ultimately to be limited to 79.4 million models. The cautious recovery of demand in most regions is likely to continue, provided that effective vaccines are still available and the omicronic variant of the pandemic has no greater effects.

Corona spoils prospects for 2022

It is expected that sales in 2021 will only be 2.9 percent above the level of the crisis year 2020. IHS remains reserved in terms of relaxation. It is calculated that the low vehicle production will have a while on the lead times, which increases the pressure on the exhausted inventory and delays the current order situation.

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Job message for car manufacturers: Chip deficiency until at least 2023-manufacturers

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"The course of the pandemic remains an important factor for automotive demand in 2022, in particular the race between vaccine and variants", Colin Couchman, Executive Director at IHS Markit, "The onset of winter in the countries of the northern hemisphere remains worrying, and the occurrence of the Omicron variant represents a worrying development."

Large demand plus expected in 2022

In most regions, the prospects of recovery due to problems in the supply chain and a possible further flare-up of Covid-19 are limited. The European automotive industry is looking forward to a dark winter, since the increasing virus problems are combined with the continuing problems in the supply chain and production is not only endangered in one country like Germany. The demand forecast for Western and Central Europe for 2021 is based on 13.9 million units and thus only reaches growth of 0.2 percent compared to the previous year. According to the IHS analysts, demand is estimated at 15.0 million units (+7.8 percent) for 2022. “It is expected that European car consumers will be prepared for a second winter with Covid-19, but the new year could prove to be difficult to improve the sales figures for new cars significantly", so couchman.

Job message for car manufacturers: Chip deficiency until at least 2023-manufacturers
Cattle man Currently rather unusual: new cars with high discounts at a car dealer. Due to the semiconductor crisis, many new cars are delivered very delayed – this lowers the discount pressure

For 2022, the US sales figure will achieve almost 15.5 million units, which corresponds to an increase of 2.6 percent compared to the level of around 15.1 million units forecast for 2021. “For 2022, the sales pace will be accelerated in the second half of the year. In view of the current inventory, it is difficult to predict a significant recovery in demand in the first half of 2022. However, we assume that we will end the year 2022 with a sales pace that more corresponds to the level before the introduction of the covid, which creates the prerequisites for better volume forecasts in 2023 and 2024", says Chris Hopson, North America expert at IHS.

Decline on the important China market?

In China, the analysts for 2021 expect a decline in the market by one percent to 23.4 million units compared to the previous year, since bottlenecks in the supply chain slow down market growth. The short -term risks keep the scales and for 2022 a value of 24.2 million (+3.3 percent) is currently predicted. It is not until 2023 that a clearer recovery is expected – back to the pre -crisis level to 26.9 million vehicles – plus 11.3 percent. “The capacity restrictions within the semiconductor supply chain remain the most influential characteristic of the forecast. If the semiconductor flood goes back, this will bring further risks for the recovery of the automotive industry, ”explains IHS Analyst Mark Fulthorpe,“ Threats in other areas of the supply chain could come to light with the improvement of the chip supply, especially in logistics, with problems with problems the workers and bottlenecks for important raw materials."

Job message for car manufacturers: Chip deficiency until at least 2023-least
Carsten Koall/dpa Samsung Electronics benefits significantly from the increased prices for semiconductors.

It was not until 2023 the big rebound

For the greater China area, IHS predicts slight growth from 1.6 percent to 24.3 million units for 2022. For Europe, production in 2022 is expected to increase to 18.5 million units, compared to estimated 15.7 million this year. For the North America region, the dynamic on the way to 2022 improves, although our outlook on the basis of the current forecasts remains almost 15.2 million units; This corresponds to growth of just over 2.2 million units compared to the previous year. A normalizing supply chain is expected to lead to a vehicle production of 90.6 million units in 2023, which corresponds to a further increase of ten percent compared to the previous year and is well above the level of production before pandemy in 2019.

The most embarrassing supplier disaster

The steadily increasing number of recalls can at least partially be attributed to the modular system of the car manufacturers and the associated many equal parts – which usually come from suppliers. The spectacular incidents must not mislead about it, that the collaboration usually works smoothly. Nevertheless, three still fresh examples show how cracks can have serious consequences in the fragile network:

1. The Takata disaster

When "Total recall", The biggest recall of all time is referred. The return numbers have been massively expanded and various car manufacturers concern all over the world – including German carmakers. The recalls are still running. There have already been some fatal accidents because the airbags did not trigger properly.

2. "Switchgate" – Dangerous ignition lock

Of the "Switchgate"-Case of defective ignition locks at General Motors also led to several fatal accidents because the key in the castle while driving in the castle "Out of"-Position could jump and then did not work in the accident in the accident. The ignition locks contributed by suppliers were only gradually exchanged – and the case showed how a control failure and cynical decisions driven by financial considerations at General Motors mean that the problems were not evaluated properly for years and were drawn too late consequences for years.

3. Aston Martin: China plastic in the accelerator

The interdependencies of suppliers on different levels showed in a embarrassing way in 2014 when the British Nobel brand Aston Martin had to call back a large part of their cars built since 2007 because of potentially fragile accelerator pedals . Fortunately, there was no accidents and the danger only occurred in tests – but the case showed the problem of long supply chains: the entire supply chain consisted of three Chinese suppliers and a company in England that delivered the assembled accelerator pedals to Aston Martin. And somewhere in this braid, incorrectly labeled, inferior plastics led to the problem.

Because of demand explosion-corona self-tests are scarce

Job message for car manufacturers: Chip deficiency until at least 2023-2023

Site/Wochit Because of demand explosion-corona self-tests are scarce

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4 thoughts on “Job message for car manufacturers: Chip deficiency until at least 2023”

  1. so what ?
    Just drive the old car on. At best, drive yourself and use Max assistants, … if available. Should still give people who have a driver’s license (you can still write that ?) made, completely without assistants. Z. E.g. Parking the park without beeps and tailgate yourself. You should leave the church in the village here. The absolute major of the global vehicles drive without assistants and with combustion engine (Africa, South America, Southeast Europe, East, etc.), the majority still drive in Asia "without" Rum, but with "-Clock….. The drama/hype is actually only here, whyever ?!?

    Reply
  2. No
    People need autonomous driving, but it’s no fun to be driven, then I can take the bus right away. However, when I see how many drivers are too stupid to park, maybe not a bad idea after all.

    Reply
  3. We will see
    If you believe some forists on this platform, then the whole cars will be sold by the next few years, yes, almost everyone will be an electric car, of course by Tesla. Because everyone else, especially the German manufacturers, lag behind 10 years and have no chance. A miracle that they don’t just stop their business and leave everything to Mr. Musk. In reality it will be the case that it is the German manufacturers again, what standards also set for electric cars. There are already first evidence. Keyword: autonomous driving. A little tip, the car that has been the most advanced comes from Daimler from Tesla. The same applies to reach and loading speed. Once again show local manufacturers where the hammer hangs, dear Tesla fans.

    Reply
  4. Ups, again a new record
    A manufacturer delivers new records for quarter and prepares the doubling of the production capacity for 2022. How is the IDS and EQX and IXY ?

    Reply

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