Europe is well a good way to take the leadership role worldwide in the transformation for electromobility. This believes at least the management consultancy McKinsey, from whose study “Why the Automotive Future is Electric” cited the “automotive week”. With 75 percent market share of e-cars at all newly authorized cars in 2030 Europe will even “lead the change” – before the biggest e-car market in absolute numbers China with 70 percent and the US with 65 percent.
In the EU, 2030 of each fourth car – a total of more than 70 million vehicles – could have an electric drive. According to McKinsey, “fundamental change” does not only affect the manufacturers and suppliers, but also goes far beyond: 24 battery gigafactories would need in Europe – and the need for electricity from renewable energies would rise by five percent. “Worldwide, e-mobility continues to win,” says Andreas Tschiesner, head of the European automotive consultancy of McKinsey. The industry is in front of the largest conversion process of its history. This change is particularly concerned about five areas.
New mobility forms required new components such as batteries, e-motors and power electronics for electric vehicles, it says. These growing component groups are likely to make up 2030 more than half of the market. Classic parts of the internal combustion engine such as gearboxes, engines and injection systems then only for 10 percent of the market – a shrinkage to half. After an estimate of the IFO Institute, 100 could.000 jobs in the German auto industry of this change will be affected by this change – this is up to ten times more than the coal outward.
The first generation of the e-auto owner invited her cars to home – 80 percent of the buyers had access to a private charging station. “The next generation will be much more dependent on public and semi-public charging points,” says Patrick Schaufuss, partner in Munich McKinsey office. The industry must therefore be around 15 to 2030.000 charging points, for example at workplaces, take new operation – and every week.
Over the entire lifecycle – around 240.000 kilometers for a middle class vehicle – has a battery-electric vehicle compared to a combustion a CO2 advantage between 65 percent and 80 percent. Since E-cars are approximately CO2-neutral in operation at charging current from renewable energies, emissions from vehicle production are focused on McKinsey. These are today for battery electric vehicles around 80 percent higher than for a burner, but could be reduced by an increased proportion of recycled material and the use of “green” materials up to a complete transition to renewable energies.
“Despite the intensive efforts and existing regulation, the current steps are not yet sufficient to create the climate protection objective of minus 55 percent CO2 emissions by 2030 compared to 1990,” says Schauussuss. Although the new car fleet becomes always emission in the next decade, but duration the renewal of the entire car fleet longer. The use of organic and synthetic fuels, a reduction of the kilometers that are driven with burners, intelligent traffic systems with fewer traffic jams as well as promoting the renewal of the stock of very old combustion models are possible levers to achieve the 55 percent goal.
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2 thoughts on “McKinsey: 2030 driving three of four new cars electrically”
A speed limit only for burners and hybrids would be the best catalyst to get the change without expensive rewards. And in the second step is the mentioned “Reduction of the kilometers that are driven with burners”, because that means driving bans or. Previous prohibitions in cities, holiday regions and sensitive areas such as Black Forest, Alps, Islands. That would be horny if the previously grinning La Martina carrier on Sylt should only enter without your V8 ..
If you count all partial electrified such as mild and plug-in hybrids and fuel cell vehicles to the battery cars, then I hold it for possible 3 out of 4 with electric drive to bring up the road. The limit value for pure battery cars, especially if actually 2025 the promotion expires, I see at 40-50%, parallel to home ownership and thus the availability of their own charging option.