McKinsey study E-trucks and buses soon on diesel level

McKinsey study E-trucks and buses soon on diesel level-mckinsey

Who’s last days here on electric car news.Net or also passed by other websites around the topic of electromobility, which may noticed that not only cars determine the news and news. Straight electric buses as well as electric trucks or e-trucks called back to the foreground. May certainly be because Elon Musk wants to introduce the electric saddle tractor from Tesla to the end of October. Whether he succeeds in the same success as at that time with his first Tesla electric car is questionable.

Nevertheless, things are also moving with other manufacturers, because transport logistics plays a major role in our time, in which every cent is taken into account, routes are optimized and refueling is done at the cheapest price. For example, Daimler has started the series production of the electric truck Fuso Ecanter, Porsche tests pure electric 40-tonner in internal traffic and also is used on electromobility in goods and passenger transports. Also in passenger traffic moves a lot. Especially the news from the Elektrobus front knew the past days for a stir.

If the management consultancy McKinsey, which this business area has looked exactly, result in the following findings:

  • Small electric trucks up to 7.5 tons already today with the diesel at eye level – the most effective range of applications is around 200 kilometers driving performance / day
  • Electric city buses in a serious segment (from 16 tons) will reach diesel buses between 2023 and 2025

It is not yet possible to say exactly to what extent technical improvements such as higher battery density will affect the overall life cycle costs. It is understandable that this can increase the attractiveness compared to diesel vehicles. However, this also depends heavily on the area of application. Assuming, for example, an improvement in the overall life cycle costs of 5 percent, this means a shift in cost parity of three to four years for inner-city use. For vehicles that travel long distances outside of the city, the shift is not as significant.

In addition to the current acquisition costs of an electric truck or electric bus, there is another challenge in the room, the charging problem of the battery. Because a 1.000 Kwh battery, which will probably be used in such large vehicles, needs around 8 hours to be full again, even at a quick charging station. So something has to move in this area to make the vehicles more interesting for long-distance journeys.

Nevertheless, McKinsey assumes that the market share of battery-electric light and medium-duty commercial vehicles will even be larger than that of electric passenger cars in some markets by 2030. How strong the growth curve is in this area is directly determined by the cities. If the decision is made there to convert their own city fleets of commercial vehicles to electric drives, this will ensure significant growth.

The authors of the study estimate market shares of between 15 and 34 percent for 2030 with stricter diesel regulations – and 8 to 27 percent if diesel commercial vehicles are allowed to enter city centers for a longer period of time. News like: “Netherlands: No new combustion engines after 2030” clearly show where the journey is going. Because more and more big cities seem to be following suit.

The McKinsey study also shows that in China in 2016, more than 30 percent of newly registered city buses were electric. In the future, this number is set to increase further due to the strict emission regulations for city centers – the best example is the fact that by 2020 10.000 electric buses are said to be on the road in Beijing. Based on this increase in the near future, the study also assumes that electric city buses will reach cost parity with combustion models in the total cost analysis (TTC) before 2024 and that half of all buses in major Chinese cities will be electric by 2030.

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