ICCT study 2021
New electrical study under the magnifying glass: How Stromer are beautifully calculated
More and more electric cars and charging stations will overload the power grids. Artificial intelligence should prevent this.
ICCT study 2021: New electrical study in the check-how the Stromer are beautifully calculated!
Site author Carl Christian Jancke
Site editor Sebastian Viehmann
The advisory organization ICCT covered the diesel scandal, but has also propagated electromobility for years. A current study clearly sees e-cars in the environmental advantage. Site viewed the statements.
For links on this page, Site receives. A commission from the dealer, Z.B. For marked. More information the electrical shaft rolls: In Germany there were significantly more new registrations in purely battery-operated electric vehicles (+358%) in the second quarter of 2021 and for plug-in hybrids (+270%). The high purchase premiums and tax advantages are likely to be a major reason for this. The importance of e-cars is also increasing internationally, especially for German manufacturers. According to the data from the PWC consulting company, every second plug-in hybrid sold worldwide and every sixth-sold Stromer comes from a German car manufacturer.Behind the hand, many car managers admit that the electric cars are getting better and better, but the pure electrical strategy in Europe is essentially due to the requirements of politics. This is based primarily on a controversial point: the claim that e-mobility is the only way to make traffic free of fossil fuels. This way of thinking is reflected in the EU practice controversial among experts, to set the emissions of electric cars with zero – no matter how the batteries or the electricity necessary for charging are obtained daily.
New e-car study: ICCT wants to ban combustion from 2035
The scientific foundations for this regularly provide associations and organizations that advise politics and have a major influence in Brussels, especially in Brussels. Now the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has presented a much-noticed study that is intended to prove that only with electric cars with electricity from renewable energy can the so-called 1.5 degree goal of the current EU. A burner ban 2035 is therefore required.
Photo: dpa More and more electric cars and charging stations will overload the power grids. Artificial intelligence should prevent this.
The ICCT has uncovered the diesel scandal at Volkswagen and is considered to be an independent consumer organization, which, among other things, provides data for authorities and was also involved in the conception of the new WLTP consumption cycle. In the EU, the ICCT is supported by the Mercator Foundation and climate protection organizations, which expressly recommend e-mobility.The ICCT is not a really independent instance on the subject. This is already evident in a significant weak point of the study: the narrowing to the comparison of the electric car and fuel cell drive on the one hand and the combustion engine on the other hand. Synthetic fuels are not even mentioned, organic sprit is dismissed as not very efficient.
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CO2 numbers too optimistic forecast?
For Site has Prof. Dr. Alexander Eisenkopf, Economic and Transport expert from the Zeppelin University Friedrichshafen evaluated the ICCT study and considers it not very meaningful in many points.Eisenkopf notes that the advantages of the electric car determined by the ICCT in the case of the CO2 balance sheet itself the information on a brochure of the Federal Environmental Office far. While the ICCT speaks of almost 70 percent savings of greenhouse gases, the BMU assumes a reduction of 30 percent (petrol engine) and 23 percent (diesel). In addition, the forecast set up by the ICCT by 2050 mountains considerable risks in the accuracy of the calculations.
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The actual emissions of an electric car depend on the electricity mix in the respective country and not on the average emissions of the whole EU. Numerous scientists recently criticized the approach of the CO2 costs of the electricity with this average value calculations. Estimates by the international energy agency are based on the entire life cycle for an electric car in France of 35 grams of CO2 per km. In Germany, on the other hand, according to their assumptions, there are 303 grams. Europe -wide then 199 becomes 199. Still much more than forecasting the ICCT.
Consumption improvements are ignored
In addition, the ICCT ignores technical progress in combustion engines, which is said to consume 7.1 liters as a petrol engine in 2030. 5.9 liters are accepted as diesel. Prof. Thomas Koch from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, expert in combustion engines, on the other hand, calculates around 3 liters with a consumption reduction. “Without them, however, the tightening of the Euro 7 standard planned by the EU Commission can hardly be reached.""The currently valid lowering of the fleet limit values by 37.5% by 2030 is simply achieved by the manufacturers by a higher odds of BEVS and plug-in hybrids. This also exposes the regime of fleet limit values as what it actually is: a quota control for electric vehicles, ”says Alexander Eisenkopf.
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According to the ICCT forecasts, the climate balance of combustion engines in the United States, China and India should clearly improve. It is true that these countries also want to reduce their CO2 emissions and, for example. Only the coal exit in these countries is still a long way off. "For 600 new coal-fired power plants, the Asian governments of China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Vietnam want to raise $ 150 billion," reports the well-known environmental blog chanthinking. When – and whether at all – the battery car in the largest emissions in the world, that is, China, becomes "cleaner" than an economical petrol engine, nobody can say.
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The pure numbers of the ICCT study are also contradictory. For 2021 battery vehicles approved, the study specifies 76-83 grams of CO2 emissions, in 2030 it should be 56-73 grams. In the small print of the study there is then average for Germany of 107 grams. This reduces the advantage over the combustion engine from claimed 77 to 57 percent.
Average current calculation leads to
“57 percent would still be a veritable savings if one believes all assumptions based. The central wound point of the study, however, is the assumption that electric vehicles in Germany refuel the average current and that it has fewer and fewer emissions, ”says Eisenkopf. In fact, every additional electric car increases the electricity requirement, which can then only be covered from conventional sources, which marginalized the alleged advantages.10 or 14 million electric cars, as planned by the federal government, cannot be invited when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing to produce the corresponding amounts of electricity that would otherwise have to be given away to neighboring countries or otherwise would have to be "folded down".In fact, these additional power consumers can initially only be loaded with the current of a controllable fossil power plant. Of course, the federal government also knows this – and therefore relies on a kind of miracle weapon for the now no longer reversible path of electrification: Hydrogen is intended to serve as an energy storage to save it somewhere during overproduction "green" electricity and to feed back into the network when underlap.
DIW assumes halved power consumption
It can be said: The ICCT study uses too many optimistic assumptions and at the same time leaves too many aspects-such as progress in combustion technology or CO2 reduction through synthetic fuels-in order to actually be the final argument for a pure electrical Course to serve as it is marketed.In addition: In the desired carbonized world in the federal government, not only the electric cars need a lot more electricity. The steel, chemical industry and the heat market should also be electrified with emission-free energies. There is a current forecast by the German Economic Research Institute (DIW) that makes you start -up. Because miraculously, the annual energy demand shown in the DIW weekly report is only 1209 Terrawatt hours (TWH). In 2018, the need was more than twice as high without this electrification, at 2589 Terrawatt hours. Without rationing and de -industrialization, this should hardly be possible. The fact that electric car drivers in particular have to adjust to this shows the discussion about reducing charging stream at private charging points.
Top smoothing or electricity rationing?
The draft law on the "top smoothing" was just withdrawn by Federal Minister of Economics Peter Altmaier in order not to disturb as a ticking time bomb in the election campaign, because the law provides nothing other than the possibility of temporarily removing the charging current for e-cars for network fluctuations. Theoretically, this “network-compatible store” also enables a source of income for e-car owners if they are almost used to buy back to your power operator from the battery. However, the federal government should have recognized that the "top smoothing" is better taught potential e-car owners and, above all, not before the Bundestag election.
Convention conventional power plants to hydrogen?
Alexander Eisenkopf sees the German self -sufficiency solution, which dispenses with imports of renewable energies (hydrogen, methane) from outside the continent, as unrealistic. “This leads to huge expansion goals for renewable (223 GW installed power for wind on land, 80 GW for wind offshore and 900 or. 226 GW for photovoltaics), ”says Eisenkopf. For German energy supply, this will then mean either to import electricity or not to consume it. "If the wind generation is low, the demand, if possible, is postponed and supported on the generation side by battery storage, hydrogen turbines and imports from neighboring countries," says the DIW.
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In contrast to most large industrialized countries, hydrogen as an energy storage facility is in Germany, because the actual "miracle weapon" that the green turn in industry, house electricity and cars must also bring in the real "miracle weapon". In fact, energy experts point out that even existing fossil power plants could be converted to hydrogen.The existing gas turbines, which feed the current into the network with the required frequency, are then operated with a mixture of natural gas and hydrogen (burned CO2-free), even 100 percent hydrogen use would be possible. Of course, all the subjunctive planning requires appropriate planning; At least one has to doubt their efficiency if you look at the relentless billing of the Federal Audit Office with the German Energy Wende .
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And if all of this does not work and the CO2 reduction is not achieved that Germany has prescribed its citizens? Then not everyone can drive anymore who wants to. The President of the Federal Environmental Office, Dirk Messner, recently said in the "Handelsblatt" interview: At least a tripling and photovoltaics are needed with the wind energy on land and at least a doubling of the annual expansion. And: “In the traffic sector we have to electrify and reduce the number of automobiles." The Federal Environment Ministry also knows that the regenerative electricity is not sufficient for the dream dreams of the energy transition. In a brochure it states: “Electric vehicles cannot be the only strategy to meet the goals of climate and environmental protection in road traffic. A sustainable turnover of traffic only succeeds if the focus is also on avoidance and relocation."
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