Outlook for the development of electric car market in Europe until 2025

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Outlook for the development of electric car market in Europe until 2025-electric

Already a good one month ago we pointed out that the electric car sales in 2020 should be more than double. Now, however, it is important to expand and consider the development of the electric car market in Europe until 2025. It is set, the growth is driven by the CO2 fleet values of the car manufacturers.

In December 2018, one has agreed in the EU to new CO2 limits for cars for the time after 2020. By 2030, the CO2 emissions of new cars should decline by 37.5 percent compared to 2021. From 2020, a limit value of 95g CO2 / km for all newly authorized cars. A fact that leads to an explosive growth at the electromobility market in quarter 01/2020.

2019 – Historically high electric car registration numbers

Outwardly, the European electro-market impresses with a cumulative growth rate of 85.1 percent after eight months. The approvals in September increased by another month with legally driven Tesla model 3 volume deliveries, accompanied by the usual pulses from the British market in September thanks to the semi-annual license plate change – in the early month in detail.

Nevertheless, even though the level of 2019 may seem big from a historical point of view, the current assessment is that the market in 2020 is more than double compared to the level of 2019 to the most important CO2 goals that are the import New models arise to achieve.

Steady growth from 2020 with short burglaries

2020 the Volkswagen Group wants alone over 300.Bring 000 E cars worldwide to the street – 100.000 from Zwickau from all over Europe. Combined with the other car manufacturers, a significant increase compared to 2019 is expected. Even higher than the current growth rate currently consistently over 80 percent compared to 2018.

Thus, the European market is expected to be around the 335.000 E-vehicles in 2019 – which currently seem to be achievable, to over 700.Increase 000 next year. In 2021, the European market then paves almost a million approvals.

Following this, with a flattening of the registration numbers for E cars, until then 2023 a mid-term evaluation of CO2 emissions is expected. It should be assumed that the car manufacturers are trying to see the CO2 fleet goals again a little.

The offer is expected to reduce 2024 again to the level of today in order to relocate demand to 2025 when the CO2 fleet goals of 95g / km are reduced by average by 15 percent. This strategy is driven by the awarding of superredite, which promote particularly efficient vehicles by incorporating multiple times into the CO2 balance of a manufacturer are initially outside.

Affected are vehicles that emit less than 50g of CO2 per kilometer, for example, doubly counted in fleet consumption 2020, in 2021 still 1.66 times and 2022 still 1.33 times – limited to 7g / km. After that you do not get super loans anymore.

From 2025 further incentives for emission-free and low-emission vehicles (ZLEV)

Another catalyst will be from 2025 of the incentive mechanism for emission-free and low-emission vehicles (ZLEV), which is introduced for vehicles with an emission of less than 50g / km. This could be quite interesting for particularly economical plug-in hybrids.

The CO2 emission targets are loosened if a manufacturer reaches a ZLEV share – measured in a given year – which exceeds the following benchmarks: automobile manufacturers will reach a ZLEV of 15 percent from 2025 and from 2030 percent ZLEV in total sales. An exceeding of the ZLEV benchmark by one percentage point increases the CO2 target of the manufacturer (in G CO2 / km) by one percent.

However, the increase in the CO2 target has already been limited to a maximum of 5 percent in order to ensure the environmental compatibility of the scheme. Therefore, the invoice that if all manufacturers achieve a rough distribution of 10 percent electric car mix plus 10 percent PHEV mix and reach a maximum of 20 percent plug-in-mix – in which case they fully exploit the advantages of ZLEV control – this corresponds to a Europe-wide volume of 1.5 million electric cars in 2025 and 3 million emission-free and low-emission vehicles.

Short supplement to the limit values: The target values of the manufacturers vary and depend on the average vehicle weight of the fleet. The CO2 limit of Toyota about 95.1 grams of CO2 per kilometer – the Japanese sell many more slight compact cars. The heavy SUVs of Jaguar-Land-Rover are allowed to emit an average of 130.6 grams. In detail, Michael has already considered this in his article “CO2 limits of the EU: many manufacturers threatening high fines”.

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1 thought on “Outlook for the development of electric car market in Europe until 2025”

  1. Everything is charged, but who would have expected in 2016 that politics and manufacturers will agree on CO2 fleet limits?
    The climate overheating is progressing and the effects are becoming more noticeable, the politicians do not stop, because the tight self-confidence with the manufacturers does not use anything anymore.
    I am convinced, 2030 we will have 80-100% of emissome vehicles in many countries.

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