- 2019 – Historically high electric car registration numbers
- Steady growth from 2020 with short burglaries
- From 2025 further incentives for emission-free and low-emission vehicles (ZLEV)
Already a good one month ago we pointed out that the electric car sales in 2020 should be more than double. Now, however, it is important to expand and consider the development of the electric car market in Europe until 2025. It is set, the growth is driven by the CO2 fleet values of the car manufacturers.
In December 2018, one has agreed in the EU to new CO2 limits for cars for the time after 2020. By 2030, the CO2 emissions of new cars should decline by 37.5 percent compared to 2021. From 2020, a limit value of 95g CO2 / km for all newly authorized cars. A fact that leads to an explosive growth at the electromobility market in quarter 01/2020.
2019 – Historically high electric car registration numbers
Outwardly, the European electro-market impresses with a cumulative growth rate of 85.1 percent after eight months. The approvals in September increased by another month with legally driven Tesla model 3 volume deliveries, accompanied by the usual pulses from the British market in September thanks to the semi-annual license plate change – in the early month in detail.
Nevertheless, even though the level of 2019 may seem big from a historical point of view, the current assessment is that the market in 2020 is more than double compared to the level of 2019 to the most important CO2 goals that are the import New models arise to achieve.
Steady growth from 2020 with short burglaries
2020 the Volkswagen Group wants alone over 300.Bring 000 E cars worldwide to the street – 100.000 from Zwickau from all over Europe. Combined with the other car manufacturers, a significant increase compared to 2019 is expected. Even higher than the current growth rate currently consistently over 80 percent compared to 2018.
Thus, the European market is expected to be around the 335.000 E-vehicles in 2019 – which currently seem to be achievable, to over 700.Increase 000 next year. In 2021, the European market then paves almost a million approvals.
Following this, with a flattening of the registration numbers for E cars, until then 2023 a mid-term evaluation of CO2 emissions is expected. It should be assumed that the car manufacturers are trying to see the CO2 fleet goals again a little.
The offer is expected to reduce 2024 again to the level of today in order to relocate demand to 2025 when the CO2 fleet goals of 95g / km are reduced by average by 15 percent. This strategy is driven by the awarding of superredite, which promote particularly efficient vehicles by incorporating multiple times into the CO2 balance of a manufacturer are initially outside.
Affected are vehicles that emit less than 50g of CO2 per kilometer, for example, doubly counted in fleet consumption 2020, in 2021 still 1.66 times and 2022 still 1.33 times – limited to 7g / km. After that you do not get super loans anymore.
From 2025 further incentives for emission-free and low-emission vehicles (ZLEV)
Another catalyst will be from 2025 of the incentive mechanism for emission-free and low-emission vehicles (ZLEV), which is introduced for vehicles with an emission of less than 50g / km. This could be quite interesting for particularly economical plug-in hybrids.
The CO2 emission targets are loosened if a manufacturer reaches a ZLEV share – measured in a given year – which exceeds the following benchmarks: automobile manufacturers will reach a ZLEV of 15 percent from 2025 and from 2030 percent ZLEV in total sales. An exceeding of the ZLEV benchmark by one percentage point increases the CO2 target of the manufacturer (in G CO2 / km) by one percent.
However, the increase in the CO2 target has already been limited to a maximum of 5 percent in order to ensure the environmental compatibility of the scheme. Therefore, the invoice that if all manufacturers achieve a rough distribution of 10 percent electric car mix plus 10 percent PHEV mix and reach a maximum of 20 percent plug-in-mix – in which case they fully exploit the advantages of ZLEV control – this corresponds to a Europe-wide volume of 1.5 million electric cars in 2025 and 3 million emission-free and low-emission vehicles.
Short supplement to the limit values: The target values of the manufacturers vary and depend on the average vehicle weight of the fleet. The CO2 limit of Toyota about 95.1 grams of CO2 per kilometer – the Japanese sell many more slight compact cars. The heavy SUVs of Jaguar-Land-Rover are allowed to emit an average of 130.6 grams. In detail, Michael has already considered this in his article “CO2 limits of the EU: many manufacturers threatening high fines”.
Outlook on the development of the electric car market up to 2025
According to automobile analyst Matthias Schmidt from Berlin, pure electric cars will exceed the one million registration mark in Europe in 2021. But…
Electric SUVs and the lower middle class dominate Europe’s electric car market
At the end of November 2020, Europe’s electric car market had a total of 562.341 registered electric cars and 498.487 plug-in hybrids. These registration…
Analyst: Development of electric car market in Europe to Corona
Matthias Schmidt, automotive analyst , in his last report already to understand that the electric car licensing figures in Europe are rather declining in…
Europe’s electric car market is racing past China – without a Tesla tailwind
With the race to comply with European CO2 regulations – arguably the most important driver for the approval of electric cars and plug-in hybrids -…
Europe: Every tenth new vehicle on the road is a pure electric car
Matthias Schmidt, automobile analyst from Berlin, took a closer look at car sales over the last twelve months. He came to the conclusion that purely…
China records another decline in the e-auto market; Europe is growing!
In November, the Chinese E-Auto Market recorded a decline in monthly sales in November compared to the same period of the previous year, as State Chinese…
Analyst: This is how the electric car market will develop from 2022 to 2030
According to automobile analyst Matthias Schmidt from Berlin, pure electric cars will exceed the one million registration mark in Europe in 2021. Above…
ZEEKR 001 in front of Europe’s market entry 10.000 electric cars made
From the beginning of 2023, the Chinese Group GEELY wants to start his electric rake Zeekr with his good five-meter electric shooting brake 001 in…
Electric SUVs and lower middle class dominating Europe’s electric car market
At the end of November 2020, Europe’s electrical automotivity looks at a total of 562.341 approved electric cars and 498.487 Plug-in-hybrid. These…
Europe electric car market: Tesla establishes new electric car segment
An consideration of the European electric car market according to vehicle segments has not yet existed in our portal. time to catch up. Because the…
1 thought on “Outlook for the development of electric car market in Europe until 2025”
Everything is charged, but who would have expected in 2016 that politics and manufacturers will agree on CO2 fleet limits?
The climate overheating is progressing and the effects are becoming more noticeable, the politicians do not stop, because the tight self-confidence with the manufacturers does not use anything anymore.
I am convinced, 2030 we will have 80-100% of emissome vehicles in many countries.