Prof.: Great thinking – E cars in Germany a lot of dirty than thought

Article menu

• Preliminary remark
• Electricity generation in Germany
• The CO2 balance sheet
• Special case: cargo from your own solar system
• conclusion
• sources

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Preliminary remark

The author is neither fan nor enemy of the E-vehicles. He is not paid by the automotive industry. His goal is a fact-based analysis without pre-adjustment, which drive type currently causes less CO2 in Germany.

In the discussion about the environmental impact of cars, there are numerous investigations in particular. To the CO2 emissions (cf. Z. B. The VDI study from 10/2020). In the majority, they come to the conclusion that there are now benefits for the electric vehicles (BEV) when viewed the entire lifecycle. Although the electric vehicles start with a handicap, because above all, the manufacture of the batteries brings many tons of CO2 with them. Over the years, however, they quickly get up because the ejection to CO2 per 100 km is allegedly much lower.
This reasoning usually does not meet what to show

Electricity generation in Germany

The generation of electricity is subject to a variety of regulations in Germany. The basic model of the Merit Orders has worked well for decades at first glance by producing only the most favorable power plants (with the lowest marginal costs). However, a great weak point was that external power generation costs were not fully to be borne by the causes. The pollutant emissions of the coal and the risks of the atomic industry have been highly socialized.

But here a further scheme should be examined, which was given by politics. It’s about the feed-in guarantee for renewable energies. Regardless of where and when they produce, the warranty was pronounced that the amounts of electricity from renewable energies were removed and the fixed price. This is true even if you have to be sold with a negative price abroad.

First, this specification was easily because only small quantities were fed. And the other power generators still laugh ..

This has passed quickly because every year more renewable energies are fed into the grid. On windy and sunny weekends or public holidays, a large part of the total energy consumption can then be covered by renewable energies at lunchtime.

It looks different if it is covered and nearly windless is. Fortunately, excellent data is available. The Organization Agora Energiewende publishes almost in real time, with which mix of power plants the electricity is generated in Germany. For example, on the 9th.12.2020 generated at certain times above 68 GW with conventional power plants, while the renewables also clearly below 20 GW.

So weaken the renewable energies, the conventional energies must step in. They are thus the gaps that are required whenever the renewable energies can not deliver. This short-term technical control process is very good of F. Henning (Focus.of. 1 ff.). Because of the lack of legacy of solar and wind energy, the fossil energies have to step in crisis situations above all. Thus, the wind and solar energy no responsibility must bear that the supply and demand can always be compensated. This can be understood as a subsidy whose value is hardly overester.

But in the long term, conventional energies must take over the balance. Although the stroke of the additional construction of renewable energies, the average CO2 emissions per kWh year after year leads. The proportion of fossil energy generation is thus. But even for the year 2030, a target of 65% in the generated electricity is. The fossil energies will therefore remain necessary in the significant extent.

An increased power consumption, Z. B. For new electric vehicles or heat pumps, the need for additional electricity is needed, which is not yet a surprise. However, since all renewable energies are always fed in due to priority, an increase is not possible. The compensation can be done almost only about the fossil power plants. Business administration means that adaptation to volatile electricity demand can not be done by renewable energies because they always feed with maximum power (except if they have to be switched off because of missing lines, but still be paid off). Thus, for the relevant CO2 emissions, the limit amount of fossil power generation and not the average amount of all power generation types.

Unfortunately, there are little incentives for renewable energies, then produce when the electricity is needed and positive prizes.

Thus, every additional electric vehicle demands and promotes almost only the fossil power generation.

The CO2 balance sheet

The big drawback is now created by the fact that the hard coal about. 820 kg CO2 Pro MWh causes (see Agora Documentation, S. 13), lignite even about. 1030 kg per MWh, natural gas 370 kg per MWh and other 1500 kg per MWh. In the natural gas, studies must be taken into account that hardly any advantage over the competitors is given due to losses in production and distribution.

In this respect, the emissions of the hard coal are assumed which leads to 820 g per kWh per kWh. With a consumption of electric vehicles of approx. 15 – 20 kWh per 100 km are then at least 12.3 kg per 100 km or 123 g (184 g) per kilometer. The Agora evaluations (cf. Agora: Conventional power generation) show that mainly with coal flow the additional amounts of electricity are generated. Detours to approach charging stations are not yet considered. Even with a discount, the numbers show that electric vehicles operated with coal flow significantly more CO2 as economical gasoline or diesel, which – also driven by the EU – must come to less than 95 g / km. Germany‘s best selling vehicle – The VW Golf – is already 98 g / km in the variant ETSI today. Smaller vehicle still below.

The fact that the electric vehicles can be included with 0 g / km into fleet emissions is amazing against this background ..

• Conclusion 1: The average CO2 of electricity generation used in virtually all studies may not be used for comparative invoices. The limit must be used, which is mainly driven by fossil energies.
• Conclusion 2: Electric vehicles can not currently reduce their CO2 backpack in many cases and sometimes increase their drawback with each kilometer.

A possible counter-argument is that over the years the share renewable stream is increasingly increasing. This is undoubtedly right, but does not change the fact that additional Electricity at least in the next few years mainly fossil must be produced. And since in the third quarter 2020, according to Destis, 56% of the amount of electricity was generated conventionally, that will remain long yet, if also with decreasing tendency. In this 3. Quarter of coal flow at 26.4% in the first place. After switching off the last nuclear power plants, the emission situation should continue to aggravate.

In the following figure, the expected course of fossil power generation is roughly sketched:

Fig.1: Sketched course of fossil power generation

Although the fossil electricity is partially displaced by the electricity from renewable energies, they must supply all additional amounts of electricity. This also applies to the year 2022 if the last nuclear power plants go from the network. These had an infeed of 8 GW at the end of 2020. The corresponding jump of coal generation upwards is considered in Figure 1.

Higher electricity requirements thus also leads to the next few years that more coal flow must be generated. So, if additional electric vehicles (BEV), heat pumps etc. must be powered, the additionally needed electricity will have to come to the large part of fossil energy sources.

The surprising conclusion is that the sale of each electric vehicle should pop the champagne corks in the fossil power generators ..

Special case: cargo from your own solar system

It can only look different in the exceptional cases in which a separate photovoltaic system Additionally Only installed for charging the electric vehicle. Then there is a big advantage. However, the quantitatively is not very big, because many cars are traveling during the day and barely electricity can be generated. Storage are currently rarely economical and increase the CO2 emissions.

And even if an existing system is used for loading, the effect is minimal because then more electricity (opportunity) is needed in the network by non-feeding, which in turn must be generated by fossil power plants.

conclusion

Electric vehicles, which are currently only in small niches, are pressed into the market with high subsidies because they are allegedly more environmentally friendly. This is rarely true today in Germany.

Today’s purchase bonuses for electric vehicles and the many other subsidies are initially very expensive for taxpayers. The citizens who need a second car and have their own charging option. That’s certainly not the poorest ..

In the given rules of the German electricity market, new electric vehicles almost always significantly increase the CO2 emissions.

The citizen who wants to contribute to the CO2 reduction with the purchase of electric vehicles can hardly achieve this if he does not build a new solar system at the same time.

The government has once again been caught in its own subsidy trade and reaches the opposite of its destination of CO2 reduction, and the costs to horrendous. The 55% destination of the reduction in 2030 VS. 1990 is counteracted.

Until electric vehicles in Germany are really more advantageous, the renewable energies incl. Memory are significantly expanded and requires further technical advances in the batteries. That will take years. Until then, electric vehicles should be limited to niches. The subsidies must be adjusted as soon as possible.

This article was made by Prof. Dr. Peter Hoberg written by the Hochschule Worms and looks at the CO2 balance of electric cars in Germany. This is his opinion, deposited with corresponding sources and is to be discussed.

sources

• Agora Energiewende: Power generation and power consumption, in: https: // www.Agora energy transition.DE / Service / Agorameter / Chart / Power_Generation / 05.12.2020/12.12.2020 /
• Agora Energiewende: Agora Documentation, in: https: // static.Agora energy transition .DE / FileAdmin2 / Projects / Agermameter / A-W_Artergrunddokumentation_AgORAMETER _V37_WEB.pdf
• Agora Energiewende: Conventional power generation, in: https: // www.Agora energy transition.DE / Service / Agorameter / Chart / Conventional_Power_Generation / 07.12.2020/14.12.2020 /
• Destatis: Press Release 498, in: https: // www.Destatis.DE / DE / Press / Press Releases / 2020/12 / PD20_498_43312.HTML
• Henning, F.: Why with electric cars often leaves coal electricity in the battery, in: https: // www.focus.DE / Auto / News / Kraftwerks-Expert-Erklaert-der -E-Oekostrom-TRICK-WHY-IN ELECTROAUTOS-OFF COAL CURRENT-IN CASHER-LANDET_ID_11622440.HTML
• Rest, K.: Electric car dizziness, Norderstedt 2020
• VDI: Ecobilance of cars with different drive systems 10/2020, in: https: // www.VDI.DE / FileAdmin / Pages / VDI_DE / Editors / Vor_ort / BV / Braunschweiger-BV / News / News_bv / VDI-Studio_Oecobilance PCW_INTERNET.pdf

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