Electric motor, hybrid or hydrogen? A revolutionary change moves the automotive industry: In order to fight the electrical, climate-neutral and completely crosslinked mobility of the future, automakers, suppliers and new challengers. Established industrial sites with millions of workers must reinvent. The electrification does not only change the auto industry rapidly. Because innovative technologies and new business models break out old industry limits: Telecommunications companies flirt with car sharing; Making supermarkets with charging columns of classic gas stations competing; Electric cars as power storage via vehicle-to-grid with the network promote renewable energies; Chemical companies are committed to lightweight construction; and the big internet corporations work on the autonomous driving.
The market research company Ceresana has studied the rapidly growing European market for electrically powered passenger cars, separated by battery electric cars (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV).
Automotive industry under electricity
The transformation of the vehicle industry has enormous economic implications: Currently, more than 357 million cars are traveling in Europe, 37 percent in Eastern Europe including Russia and Turkey. Still outweigh cars with gasoline or diesel engines (ICE). The electromobility is massively promoted in many states and preaches from a record to the next.
Over the past year, electrically powered vehicles reached a breakthrough: while the number of new registrations in the wake of the Corona crisis in Europe over compared to 2019 a total of almost 21 percent, the sales of electric cars massively put together. In Western Europe, PHEV and BEV already have a share of 12.4 percent of new registrations. The European Auto Supplies Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler and Renault were able to significantly catch up with the industry prime of Tesla and Asian manufacturers such as BYD.
Almost all European states promote the purchase of low-emission vehicles with financial and legal incentives. Even comparatively poor countries, such as Z.B. Romania, Greece or Slovakia, grant generous grants and loans for the acquisition of environmentally friendly electric cars. At the same time, CO2 emissions from internal combustion engines in motor vehicle taxes, toll and park fees or insurance is increasingly occupied with levies. The production of battery systems, but also the charging infrastructure is massively expanded. Essential drivers of electromobility are the requirements of the European Union, which in the context of their “Green Deal” the limit values for greenhouse gas emissions are exacerbated.
Cleantech conquers the green future
The analysts of Ceresana expect for the whole of Europe that the new registrations of electrically powered vehicles (PHEV & BEV) will grow to more than 8.7 million per year by 2030. For BEV, this means an average increase of 25 percent per year; PHEV is expected to grow by 11.7 percent. With growth of around 33.8 percent at BEV and 29.2 percent at PHEV, the countries in Eastern Europe achieve the highest increases – but from a comparatively small level.
At the same time, other drive technologies, especially cars with conventional internal combustion engines, are likely to record a decrease of 3.4 percent per year throughout Europe. According to Ceresana’s forecast, nearly 34 million pure electric cars and 13.8 million plug-in hybrids will drive on Europe’s streets in 2030. In Western Europe, the share of electric cars in the total vehicle inventory of around 1 percent in 2020 is expected to be 20 percent in 2030.
The current study by Ceresana takes into account changes in the innovation and market cycles, technology and efficiency enhancement of the drive trains, but also the specific situation in the different countries: social and economic trends such as income development, driving performance, demographic change and urbanization are very different within Europe. From small cars to middle-class up to luxury and sports cars, automakers must adapt their product portfolio and production capacities for electric cars to the claims of the respective consumers. Awareness of environmental protection and sustainability, the interest in recycling and circulating economy are not equally pronounced everywhere – accordingly not the state subsidies and funding programs. The expansion of the charging infrastructure and the implementation of the political and legal requirements for climate protection will be promoted with differently large enthusiasm.
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2 thoughts on “Study expects 34 million electric cars in Europe to 2030”
How nice that we have market research institutes like Ceresana! Are you able to predict the future. And if it should not quite vote, just adjust the prophecy to reality. Finally, the result and the cash register of the market research institute also correct. We are experiencing that almost daily, especially in pandemeal times.
After all, a few jobs are secured. But in my opinion, this is the only plus in such institutes. You can not believe that, what the secret. And whoever does it anyway is to blame.
Ultimately, taking into account the political law planks and the manufacturers’ plans, a conservative prediction is. If 2030 is 20% of the stock electrically, this means 2030 still 80% burner around.
The sociological question is not considered how strong the momentum opposes the burner when the Early Majority starts to drive electrically. The Rogers curve of the innovation cycle can explode in our networked world, where we are exposed to the terror of the “overgrown”,. Like former smokers often the militant non-smokers are.