Study predicts faster growth of e-mobility in Germany

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Study predicts faster growth of e-mobility in Germany-predicts

The electrification of road traffic is essential to protect the climate. A needs-based charging infrastructure must be available for this – but how great will the need be in the coming years? The new study “Charging infrastructure after 2025/2030 – scenarios for the market ramp-up” (here as a detailed PDF) by the National Control Center for Charging Infrastructure provides information. It was commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) and carried out by the Reiner Lemoine Institute.

For the first time, the study uses scientific methods to determine how much and, above all, which charging infrastructure will have to be set up by 2030 in order to cover demand. Basis are confidential information of the large automotive manufacturers active in Germany regarding their planned vehicle hull. The study takes into account new technical developments such as loading with higher performance (HPC loading) and sets the needs of the usual.

Up to 14.8 million electric cars and plug-in hybrids up to 2030

The stock of electric cars can therefore until the years 2025 or. 2030 significantly more rising than expected today – this show confidential information of the surveyed car manufacturers. Up to 14.8 million electric cars and plug-in hybrids could be admitted in Germany in 2030. The need for publicly accessible charging infrastructure in 2030 will be 440 depending on the scenario.000 to 843.000 charging points estimated. The number depends on how much private charging infrastructure is available and how busy the publicly accessible charging infrastructure is, but also on the charging behavior of users: If charging hubs with fast charging points are used more in the future, the need will be significantly lower.

The calculations also show that the rigid ratio of e-vehicles to publicly accessible charging infrastructure of 10:1 is no longer up to date. The study calculates a ratio of EVs to public charging infrastructure of 11:1 in 2021, rising to 20:1 in 2030. The reason for this is the better availability of private charging infrastructure and the increasing charging capacity of electric cars. Depending on the room type, the ratio for 2030 also varies. The study team determined a ratio of 14:1 for urban areas and 23:1 for suburban and rural areas.

According to the calculations, in 2030 around 61 percent of private parking spaces in the place of residence will have a charging point. Publicly accessible charging points are absolutely necessary to close the gap. Whether at work, when shopping or on a holiday trip, every single charging situation is important. But the biggest role will play the street room. A requirement of 420 was calculated.000 charging points where you park your car most common: on the roadside or on public parking. The proportion of private charging is forecasted by 2030 to 76 to 88 percent, the share of public charges is therefore reached 12 to 24 percent.

The rapid structure of a nationwide and user-friendly charging infrastructure is an essential goal of the 2030 climate protection program of the Federal Government. To implement this, the master plan was decided by loading infrastructure a year ago. The results and methodology of the study provide a good basis for revising the master plan and scientifically accompanying the targeted construction of charging infrastructure, the national control center loading infrastructure in a recent communication.

“In the future, there should be a regular exchange with stakeholders that scientifically accompanies the development of charging infrastructure in Germany. In this way, the interests of the actors can be linked and the charging needs of the users can be better estimated. The methodology of the present study provides a suitable basis for this. This development can only be successful if the development of charging infrastructure is understood as a common challenge, if technical diversity is understood as a solution and strength.“ – Johannes Pallasch, spokesman and one of the two heads of the National Control Center for Charging Infrastructure

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