The market share of German manufacturers will continue to shrink? – Analysis

The market share of German manufacturers will continue to shrink? - Analysis-german

The largest and most important industry of my country, the German automotive industry, shrinks. She has been shrinking for three consecutive years and a fourth is short. Worse, all the information we have today show us that this process accelerates.

My statement is based on hard data and facts and not in an opinion. While people who have the news Z.B. Read about sales of the first half-year or second quarter, get the impression that the German automotive industry is well, it grows and positioned for the future with electric vehicles, we must realize that if we dare a deep look into the data, you has been in shrinkage mode for years. I am writing this with regret about it, because my mission has failed in recent years, the German car industry, failed.

The global sales of all automakers shrank from 97 million vehicles in 2017 to 77 million in 2020. 20 million fewer vehicles sold or a whole Toyota and Volkswagen Group together have disappeared in just 3 years. The automakers try to explain this with production stops and low demand by the Covid pandemic in 2020 and semiconductor scarcity in 2021. But the truth is that demand for burners worldwide is continuously sinking. The marketing, PR and communication departments of the established manufacturers trying to explain a global negative trend for the established automakers, while the pure electric car manufacturers over the same period of 50% are grown more than 100% annually.

The market share of German manufacturers will continue to shrink? - Analysis-manufacturers

The most important market for the German car manufacturers is China. Between 35% – 44% of total sales of Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler in the first quarter 2021 was achieved. For a very decade, this sales share grew with burners without interruption year after year. Despite pandemic, semiconductor scarcity or transition to battery-electric vehicles, the importance of sales and profit of the German automotive industry in the Chinese market and its continuous growth. A population of 1.3 billion inhabitants has developed a growing middle class that can afford to buy one of the liberating status symbols that you can own – a car. In 2017, we exceeded the vertex of the worldwide growing car sales.

The traditionally important markets of the German automotive companies in Europe and North America are still important, but sales go back and are compensated by growth in China. Regardless of good or bad quarters and years in North America and Europe, the future depends on the extent to which the German premium manufacturers succeed in creating a loyal customer base in China, as in the last 100 years in the Western world. A customer base that continues to buys its branded vehicles for premium prices. Today, all data available to us confirm that they have difficulty keeping customers in the Western world and lose attractiveness and competitiveness on the world’s most important vehicle market in China, which is currently upset by burners on pure electric cars.

The market share of German manufacturers will continue to shrink? - Analysis-market

The Ifo Institute has calculated: “In the first five months of 2021, only 63 percent of the cars were produced in Germany, which were produced in the same period 2018”. Compared to 2017, this number is even worse. While all the marketing departments of the automotive industry with pleasure compare their sales figures with the exceptionally weak sales of the year 2020, where the pandemic made production, the sale and delivery almost impossible, is the unpleasant and unbearable truth that a decline of 37% in a time of the upswing, a significant weakness shows. This -37% market development happens, while pure electric car manufacturers such as Tesla have grown by 400% between 2018 and 2021 or average 130% per year. Growth in the hundreds of thousands moves quickly to the million mark.

The market share of German manufacturers will continue to shrink? - Analysis-continue

China has announced like almost all other countries to give up the sale of burners over time and support the sales of pure electric vehicles with their own growing electric car industry, a lot of money and smarter policy. It is an industrial policy strategy to increase the world’s impact by strengthening its ability to design, manufacture battery electric vehicles from Chinese production, and sell in all the world markets. The most competitive Chinese electric cars are not yet available in Europe and North America, which makes these continents for a kind of protected area for an old industry like the German car manufacturers. The unavailability of good electric cars in Europe helps German car manufacturers to sell their brands, be it in Germany or Europe. But China, Korea and the US show us how it looks like in markets where other competitive electric cars are available.

The market share of German manufacturers will continue to shrink? - Analysis-shrink

With the collection of the first Asian electric cars in Europe and North America, the peaceful time for combiers and their industry is changing. The Model 3 imported from China is the best selling electric car in the first and second quarter in Europe. First Chinese electric cars such as MG ZS eV converts top places in European markets such as Z.B. Sweden. VW had previously in these small markets such as Sweden with strong ID.4-selling achieved a top spot, but lost in June against the Chinese mg ZS eV, which is the strongly advertised VW model on the 5. Place behind the model 3 pushed. All these developments take place while the Model Y, which even better sold worldwide than Model 3 and in Europe only started in August 2021 with the delivery. Model Y is the best-selling electric car in the world and will take a significant market share in Europe. In the USA, the home market of Tesla, is the weak paragraph of the VW ID.4 out of 5.756 units in the first 6 months 2021 in comparison a small niche player to the Tesla Model Y or Model 3.

The market share of German manufacturers will continue to shrink? - Analysis-manufacturers

In May Audi sold throughout China only 50 E-Tron, Volkswagen sold 847 ID.4 and 504 ID.Crozz, but Tesla managed to.748 Model Y for sale. The Volkswagen Group sold in its main market, China, 40% of total sales but only a fraction of its electric cars. Your share of combustion vehicles will inevitably shrink. In June, the latest figures indicate a paragraph of 2.900 ID.X and ID.Crozz together, which is an improvement compared to May at a low level. But the models do not even create it according to media sources in the top 40 in China in June. The big Chinese autoportal autohome.COM is only 2.014 Sales of the ID.4 in June and the difference to 2.900 vehicles is all vehicles delivered to VW dealers. A manager in the Beijing VW branch commented this with the words, it has “triggered a shock in the house”.

Shrinking sales in China can not be compensated in North America nor in Europe, as combustion sales are also declining and you are currently struggling to lose existing customers of the old technology to US and Chinese electric car manufacturers. The customer is increasingly aware that an electric car causes less total costs.

“When Chinese customers are asked why they do not have a VW ID.4 buy, the answer is often that you value the design, but the technology and digitization behind similar Chinese cars remains.”

Chinese consumers are enthusiastic enthusiasts and currently German automakers obviously do not have the software, performance parameters and technology Chinese electric cars or a Tesla. The MEB electric car platform used by VW is designed for use by 2026, it will certainly have some small improvements in the coming years. But will be enough to bridge the competition for 4-5 years until the first vehicles are delivered by the new Trinity platform? Certainly not.

5 years without significant improvements could damage the reputation and sales of VW in China and elsewhere. The same applies to the low-priced electric car models of Audi, Skoda or Seat, which are also produced on the MEB. Daimler and BMW have an even weaker electric car offer and will not be able to exist against an agile and aggressive start-up scene at low cost and prices as well as the increasingly strong offers from NIO, BYD or XPENG. In China, there are many good brands and models that are not known in the West, but have already conquered a visible market share and a positive brand value. Western arrogance towards Chinese quality was shaped in the nineties and urgently needs a factual and objective revaluation.

The China Passenger Car Association has calculated that 57% of the global electric car market share lies in China and for the next few years a growth of 40% is predicted compared to the previous year. For Tesla, they expect a global market share of 24% in 2021, which means an annual growth of the electrical automatic parties for 3 years despite tightening offer. Any company that is not successful with its electric cars in China will either shrink or remain a niche player in his segment.

While German automakers with burners in China have a good reputation, their electric car reputation is strongly under fire. A good example of this is the faulty and slow software of the ID.4 and ID.3 with over-the-air updates, which have been moved for almost 12 months and only a few areas of functionalities actually update. Because the ID.4 Based on the MEB platform and the software problems are partially due to the control systems and the IT architecture of the vehicle, there is no quick solution for this problem unless a completely new car is developed on a new platform.

The market share of German manufacturers will continue to shrink? - Analysis-manufacturers

Even VW now begins to recognize that the next major improvements are not expected before the Trinity platform is available in 5 years. VW-F&E-boss Ulbrich recently said, “The MEB is still too conventional at the moment”. Traditionally, VW needs seven years to develop a new model and bring to the market, and five years are already a significant improvement, but for the competition much too slow. The vehicles that build on the MEB include all IDs with the future ID.5 and ID.6, which were developed specifically for the Chinese market, as well as the Skoda Enyaq IV and the Audi Q4-E-Tron, to name only a few.

Over the next 5 years, all medium and low-priced electric cars of the VW Group will come from the MEB platform and the technical and reputational problems previously described have a strong counterwind in paragraph. The strategic plan of the VW Executor does not seem to go up.

While VW has focused on scalability and low cost at MEB, they are clearly in the technology and performance parameters. Customers recognize this and turn to brands like Tesla, which are able to deliver a completely different driving experience, including a very large and functioning rapid store network and continuously via software updates improving vehicles. Cars that include the credible promise, one day to drive all autonomously.

The market share of German manufacturers will continue to shrink? - Analysis-shrink

In the US, the situation for the established automakers does not look much better, as Tesla and even US companies such as Rivian or potential future stakeholders such as Lucid promise market shares to the German premium vehicles. It seems like VW, Daimler or BMW just to offer little to compete. The call has not been sustainably damaged by the diesel scandal, the newer problem is that German electric cars are not state of the art. The id.4 was not well received in North America and the lack of functioning long-distance charging networks together with efficient electric cars makes the German automakers for a niche player in the electric car market, while the combustion sales are declining. German manufacturers increasingly have a credibility problem.

The Porsche Toycan is an example of a good German electric car, but will use only wealthy customers in his price level and remain a niche product that decreases the 911 and Cayman models sales, but not other electric car manufacturers. In the second quarter, TacyCan sales were near the 911 deliveries, which shows how superior can be electric cars. With 12.9% pure electric cars, Porsche is an example of the entire VW Group, which (Porsche included) in the second quarter is 4.4%. With solid growth, but without Porsche, which pursues its own electric car strategy, the VW brand was only 3.4% in the second quarter. A lean growth below 1% and thus in a similar magnitude such as Daimler and BMW.

The market share of German manufacturers will continue to shrink? - Analysis-shrink

Even in your home market Europe and Germany, the local automakers can not win any combustion customer as electric car customers and a customer who changes to Tesla does not come back. The rise of electric vehicles has changed the brand loyalty in a no longer recognizable extent, which has led to shrinking sales across all vehicle types. Daimler has just announced to stagnate in 202 in the vehicle sales compared to the weak Covid year 2020.

Tesla has once again taken the top spot in Europe with Model 3, the best-selling electric car in 2021. The Model Y manufactured in China will start extradition in Europe in a few weeks and with local European production in Gigafactory Berlin will leave a new customer segment forever at the end of the year.

Customer satisfaction surveys have confirmed several times that consumers who have once bought a Tesla no longer return to German manufacturers. The loyalty to which German premium car manufacturers have left and who is familiar to them now turns against them. A current and representative German NET promoter score survey, at 2.800 electric car riders were asked, proves that the Germans do the model 3 far more than their German brands. The only electric vehicle above 80% with a lonely peak value is the model 3. With 800 supercharger stations, which have been added in the second quarter alone, and with now 1.000 supercharger stations alone in Germany is also available from the rapid store network. While this end of the year should also be opened for other electric cars, but even then German electric cars can still store the supercharger as fast as the vehicles of Tesla with a few exceptions.

The strong quarterly results of the VW Group are only strong if they are compared with the weak Covid year 2020, but already compared to 2019 with -7.2% shows the VW shrinks. In 2019, a year is much more realistic as a basis for comparison than 2020. While many consumers could not order a vehicle or delivered due to the pandemic due to the pandemic, they came back in 2021 with great catch-up demand, because after all are about. 50% of all car sales Replacement investments that are absolutely necessary.

In China, VW lost 12% of paragraphs in 2. Quarter and 21% in June, which is a devastating result. The strong profits of the German car manufacturers in 2021 are mainly the result of a significant reduction in staff, which began in 2020 and by state subsidies for short-time work, which highly helped the concentrors due to semiconductor shortages and Covid the corporations, the dividends, managers Continue bonuses and stock prices. It is not an organically strong profit or sales situation that we are currently experiencing at the German car manufacturers, but an artificial and short-term.

Another indication of the dilemma and the difficult situation is the used car market. A used Tesla is very hard to find and is almost as expensive as a new car, sometimes even more expensive, while the amount of used German electric cars is unnaturally high and their prices are low. Consumers are much smarter than many automotive marketing and PR experts believe and understand very well, where they get the greatest value for their money. Everything changes when consumers have a choice, and every week there are more choices for you. The id.4 is now offered as a new car for companies in Germany with a monthly company car rate of 99 € and a private property rate of 130 €, which confirms the low value of the vehicles, which consumers attach this.

It does not matter if you can produce high-quality combustion and hybrid vehicles and develop that you have sold well in the past if your market in which you sell continuously shrinks. Hybrid rise in paragraph, but the total sales of the manufacturer fears continuously. Regardless of how well your cars are when the market you sell every year a little bit more, your company will follow this soon.

The only business that is still counting is the electric car business, and if you do not have a vehicle that offers enough use and advantages for the consumer, it will not sell well. The German automakers have difficulty bringing their electric cars to the man and the woman, while pure electric car companies are growing impressively and approaching a million vehicles per year soon. The German automakers need models that sell themselves to hundreds of thousands a year to scale their production and reduce costs per unit, but they have not been a single of these models so far. With the lack of supply and success, credibility and loyalty to the German brand dwinds.

In consideration of the huge amount of corporate ownership in the form of outdated machines and factories that have no or a negative value in the age of electromobility, the question arises what will happen to German car manufacturers. While shrinking faster in the burners than they grow with the electric cars, all started to reduce their workforce to remain profitable. Losses lead to shortened dividends, falling share prices and thus reduced opportunities to refinance debts and obligations at the capital market. Daimler offers up to 400.000 Euro severance payments for employees who leave the company, and the CEO Kallenius has publicly announced that Daimler will spark his truck business and shrink as an entire company. VW makes its program that encourages older employees to leave the company, more attractive by lowering the age limit to 59 years and plans to soon offer comparable packages for 57-year-olds.

Short-time work and closed factories and layers are currently being announced every week. The German Government pays generous support for short-time work and the high electric car and hybrid environmental premium was extended by 2025 to help industry from the financial mess by being located. VW has discontinued the brand Bugatti, it is rumored that you will also sell your Electrify America shop network and an IPO of Porsche is regularly discussed again. All are constantly looking for cash and cash flow of the second quarter of the VW Group is 10 billion. € smaller than that of Tesla, a company that has 10% of VW sales and a fraction of the facilities and employees.

The market share of German manufacturers will continue to shrink? - Analysis-shrink

While many claim that, in particular, the VW Group is the largest electric car provider in Europe and well positioned, it is worth seeing a look at the electric car proportion per total movement of vehicles. Over time, all established automakers who want to remain so big, as they are today they are completely 100% electric cars. Since hybrids pollute the environment and no longer approved in many cities and countries as well as burners as new vehicle, they can not be considered as an electric vehicle. In 2020, the VW Group had a pure electric car of 2.48% and in the first quarter, it was again only 2.49%. Including Porsche, the Group grew up 4.4% in the second quarter but without the sports car manufacturer only 3.4%. In order to keep your size size, VW would have to replace 96% of all vehicles you manufactured with electric cars but the quarterly electric car growth of the important core brand VW with the ID.3 and ID.4 next to others was only 0.8%.

The MEB Electric car platform of the VW Group this year has a worldwide production capacity of 900.000 vehicles, but in the first 6 months of the year 2021 only about 91.000 or 10% of capacity used. 75% of this 91.000 were discontinued in Europe. With 44% of all VW vehicles sold in China, but -12% in 2. Quarter 2021 and only 1% of VW electric cars sold in China shrinks the Group and is in a serious crisis. The plan, in 2021, 80 – 100.For sale 000 IDs in China, comes with 18.000 delivered vehicles in the first 6 months, clearly missed. VWS Return in China has long fallen below 10% for a long time.

The market share of German manufacturers will continue to shrink? - Analysis-continue

The VW CEO Herbert this said at the strategy presentation in July 2021: “Up to 2025 we should have a good chance to overtake Tesla.”The admission data prove that the VW Group does not catch up, but falls back. Daimler and BMW are at 3.2% and 3.1% electric car and 97% of existing combustion and hybrid sales in 4-9 years to convert to electric car sales, appears unrealistic. Daimler increased the electric car sales from 2020 to the second quarter by 1.3% to 3.2%, while the markets have a share of 10% on average. All manufacturers must increase this number for 5 years by at least 100% compared to the previous year to achieve the announced goals. But right now, their annual growth is up to 2%, far below what is needed to keep their current market. And even if you could do that, it should be noted that the German manufacturers currently with electric cars only very little until no profit, but rather losses.

The question is now what happens if you can not customize and change quickly enough? During the financial crisis, banks defined a split of their bad transactions and contracts, widely called Bad Bank, with all debts and liabilities to enable a new beginning. Some automotive companies could decide to do the same. While shrinking, the burden of liabilities and although the German government will do everything to the 800.000 to get direct jobs and 2 million indirectly alive, a ‘Bad Automotive Bank’ could help relieve the pain and open the door for a new access to the financing of your business by the capital markets.

Many believe that bankrupt is imminent for many German automotive companies, but we can observe an increasing cash flow from the EU, especially through corporate bonds and the German government, which keeps them artificially alive. Self-employed, from your own business, you can not finance yourself for a long time, but they are systemic critical and are therefore not dropped.

The VW Group could begin to sell more assets and even make Porsche with an IPO on money while BMW and Daimler could be brands in the near future, which are no longer led by German investors and managers.

The German car brands still have a value, but through the company decisions of the last decade and the current year, this value unfortunately decreases a little more every day.

This article is in July 2021 at the US website WWW.fullycharged.Show appeared and was adapted in today’s German version with current numbers, content and information.

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14 thoughts on “The market share of German manufacturers will continue to shrink? – Analysis”

  1. Very worth reading, thank you.
    One would have to go to the arrogance of the German manufacturers / managers, or can omit the Buzzword Technology Office. On the basis of the numbers mentioned, this is now apparently no longer necessary.

    Reply
  2. My God!
    In the same online publication in which the original of this elaborate is published, the author has also published an article in which he explains that Tesla becomes the largest company in the world.

    Reply
  3. I thought only, O God, again an article from this Tesla shareholder, but on the analysis is already something. The Chinese stand on the “hot sch..b “Many electronics, a lot of bling bling, privacy? What is that? If that is the most important because it is the most growing market, then you have to orient yourself to this. I do not think VW builds bad cars. Currently I drive one too. But VW builds quite conservative cars. In Germany that works too. Probably not in China. The Chinese will be aware of their strength and buy themselves patriotic Chinese cars. If the German OEMs have nothing to contribute to that, then they have to make an effort to survive in the future.

    The sentence that a Tesla customer never returned to a German OEM I would not leave that. I’m not brand loyal. I always buy what my needs are fulfilled. An M3 still stands very far above on the list for my next car.

    Farnsworth

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  4. A very realistic contribution, which should also be particularly interesting for future customers. Numbers and charts often say more than contradictory and meaningless statements from car managers. From their employees, these “managers” require flexibility to which they are not capable or ready. But what the taxpayer costs a lot of money because that is still supported by incompetent and corrupt politicians.

    Reply
  5. Porsche has already decreased to Tesla market share with his Taryce, because Porsche Exclusive is.
    The future Tesla model 2 fits badly to expensive performance vehicles. In the medium term, the Tesla brand will be overrun. Better to be different brands for different price classes.

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  6. Has already been viewed by the pink Teslabrille. In any case, I would have expected more from Zwickau. The capacity should go high at 350k, but until now only 91k Meb. Is already little. Interresant becomes the race between Tesla and China. The Germans will probably only operate in China soon the exotic luxury market.

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  7. Why did not Vw Fanboy Egon Meier have not speaked yet speaking?
    He had already seen Tesla overtaked in Q1 2021 by VW &# 128521;

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  8. These are the hard facts that have moved me at the end of 2019, my book ultimatum e: https: // amzn.to publish to / 375g335 to bring the topic to the general public about a novel-narrative.

    Anyone looking at the history of automotive indutries, which was also accompanied by fusions and bankrupts even the last 100 years, which will be able to derive alone due to probabilities that these massive transformation will not all survive for the e-car (unfortunately). Bitter, but also market economy

    Reply
  9. I can not hear this lamentation anymore. Basically, the problems are homemade. Our auto industry has long been trying to capture pampert from politics at the burner. They are not bad in international comparison, just do not fit in our “climate and mobility time”. And whoever means do not have to deliver vehicles with regard to the dear shareholders with the possible exhaust gas purification instruments, then no longer help.
    The fact that our Asian copy artists will make their market at the latest in the E-Age to a problem for our automotive industry, could be recognized at the latest after the Transrapid Disaster in Shanghai.
    And that Tesla will eventually learn how to build good and reliable cars, is not a fundamental new knowledge.
    It remains to be hoped that we would be socially accepted to the structural change in the sense of jobs and suspended existences.
    In the last consequence, I still consider the following:
    How did the cabaretist Volker Pispers “growth, eternal growth does not work. Ask Rainer Calmund “

    Reply
  10. An excellent analysis of the situation of the German carmakers, which, however, not only contributed lack of observations of an overpaid manager caste, but very much the policy, which for decades for example in the form of the reliably more incompetent from one to the next legislature period. “Minister of Transport” was deeply anchored in the rectum of the automotive industry. As you know, the current coronation of these “Federal Ministers” (no writing mistake) could sink over half a billion euros without having to have had any consequences for him so far! As “Big Player” (to Big to Fail …) one could always be sure that if necessary, the Chancellor would use ahead in Brussels for the softening of limits in pollutant emissions. Progress through technology? Probably hardly – rather through lobbyism and fraud! Let’s face it: the German auto industry will shrink! Some manufacturers will disappear or merge with others (possibly non-European) merging The know-how of the production of internal combustion engines has become worthless in the disruptive change process that has become immobilized by the retracting climate catastrophe in the shortest possible time. Unfortunately, China is now not only able to build cars, which are qualitatively absolutely high quality, but they also hang the Europeans also loose in terms of software. No miracle with a conservative stand governor for decades, for the developments like the Internet still not too long ago from the official side still considered “new territory”.

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  11. “While people who have the news Z.B. Read about sales of the first half-year or second quarter, get the impression that the German automotive industry is well, it grows and positioned for the future with electric vehicles, we must realize that if we dare a deep look into the data, you has been in shrinkage mode for years.”
    Who has there Please be written or written. edited? &# 128521;

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  12. VW has with the ID.4 deliveries in China only started. According to the latest numbers, they were already allowed in the month of July 5.Setting up 800 and with a strong rising tendency.In Europe, the MEB sales were already in Q2 (ID.3 + ID.4 + Skoda Enyaq + Audi ETRON Q4) with> 40.000 Far over the sales figures of Tesla.

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