Toyota’s path to CO2 neutrality: a lot of hybrid, little electric

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Despite new electric models: Toyota has little confidence in pure e-mobility

Toyota's path to CO2 neutrality: a lot of hybrid, little electric-hybrid

In recent years, Toyota has always given hybrid drive priority over electric drive and regularly referred to the high hybrid rates in its cars. The current model range reflects these priorities.

Toyota Motor Corporation (essentially Toyota and Lexus) had 55 electrified models on the market worldwide in 2020. These included 45 hybrid models, but only four electric cars:

Toyota's path to CO2 neutrality: a lot of hybrid, little electric-hybrid

But recently Toyota announced no fewer than 15 new electric cars, seven of which belong to the bZ sub-brand and are based on the all-electric platform e-TNGA. The first model in the range is the Toyota bZ4X, which will be produced from 2022:

Toyota's path to CO2 neutrality: a lot of hybrid, little electric-little Overall, Toyota plans to expand its range of electrified vehicles from 55 to 70 models by 2025, including 15 electric cars. In other words: currently 7 percent of the models on offer are electric cars, in four years it should be 21 percent. That is tripling, in other words a real change of direction in the direction of electromobility.

Toyota‘s expectations of the market are still low when it comes to electric cars. Let’s see how the group sees the future in Europe, the US and around the world.

Europe: 10 percent electric cars in 2025

For Europe, Toyota plans to offer "more than 55 electrified products" in 2025, including at least 10 zero-emission vehicles. In terms of sales, Toyota expects electric cars to account for about 45 out of a total of 200 million cars in ten years, around 23 percent. At Toyota, on the other hand, they should only make up ten percent: Sales in 2025 should increase to 1.5 million cars, of which "at least 150,000" should be emission-free. By far the largest number, namely 1.2 million (80 percent) are said to be hybrids or plug-in hybrids.

For comparison: The VW group (i.e. VW including Skoda, Seat, Audi etc.) wants to make 60 percent of its sales in Europe with electric cars in 2030:

Toyota's path to CO2 neutrality: a lot of hybrid, little electric-little

USA: 15 percent electric cars in 2030

Toyota does not expect much success with BEVs and FCEVs in the USA either: in 2030, only about 15 percent of sales are expected to come from BEVs and FCEVs. Toyota continues to focus on hybrids (HEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). Together with BEVs and FCEVs, they are thought to make up 70 percent of Toyota and Lexus sales. In other words: For BEVs and FCEVs, Toyota expects 15 percent, HEVs and PHEVs should make up 55 percent, the remainder of 30 percent are combustion engines.

Worldwide: a maximum of 20 percent electric cars in 2030

Toyota plans to sell around 8 million electrified vehicles worldwide by 2030, including 2 million electric cars (BEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs). Toyota did not state how much that makes up in comparison to total sales. Assuming that sales will remain the same (Toyota including Daihatsu and Hino sold around 10 million cars in 2020 worldwide), then the proportion of BEVs and FCEVs would be 20 percent in 2030. But that should be the maximum, because Toyota will probably assume increasing total sales.

Toyota continues to focus primarily on hybrids and plug-in hybrids, while electric cars are only supposed to play a niche role. Nevertheless, Toyota is committed to the goal of climate neutrality by 2050. To achieve this goal, you don’t want to commit yourself to a single technology – that is, you don’t really trust pure electric mobility yet. For 2030, electric car quotas in Toyota sales of just 10 to 20 percent are apparently expected. After that, Toyota will have to switch to electromobility all the faster, because climate neutrality can hardly be achieved with hybrids and plug-in hybrids.

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